David Gately Horse Racing Tips for Empire Rose Stakes 2026

 

David Gately’s 2026 Empire Rose Stakes Preview

Flemington Track Conditions

Expected Track Rating: Soft
Rail Position: True
Forecast Rainfall: Approximately 10mm possible on Saturday

Flemington's track conditions will be an important factor on Derby Day, with several forecasts suggesting rain could arrive during both the morning and afternoon.

While rainfall predictions vary considerably, the general expectation is for approximately 10mm, which would likely have an impact on the racing surface.

Gator's ratings for the meeting are based on a Soft track.

The rail remains in the True position, as it was for last Saturday's Cox Plate meeting.

That meeting provided an interesting indication of how the track could develop throughout the afternoon.

Early in the program, runners travelling closer to the inside rail appeared to enjoy an advantage.

However, the pattern gradually shifted as the meeting progressed.

By the final three races, the winners and placegetters were making their runs through the middle of the track in the home straight.

With the Empire Rose Stakes scheduled as Race 8, that developing pattern could be particularly important.

If the track again begins to favour runners moving away from the inside, horses capable of building momentum down the middle of the straight may have a significant advantage.

 

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Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes – Race Details

Detail	Information
Race	Race 8 – TAB Empire Rose Stakes
Venue	Flemington
Distance	1600m
Grade	Group 1
Conditions	Fillies & Mares – Weight-for-Age
Expected Track	Soft
Rail	True

 

David Gately’s Empire Rose Stakes Selections & Analysis

1st – #5 Unleeshing ($11)

Gator's Top Selection & Best Value

Unleeshing is absolutely flying this preparation, and David Gately believes she's ready to take the next step into Group 1 company.

Her latest victory was outstanding.

She produced a brilliant finishing performance, recording a particularly strong final 600m to claim an impressive win.

It was the performance of a mare racing at the top of her game, and her record over Saturday's distance adds further confidence.

Unleeshing has won four of her five starts at 1600m, making the mile a major strength.

The obvious challenge is the rise to Group 1 weight-for-age company.

However, Gator believes her form through Polymnia and Decorum provides an important connection to established Group 1 performers.

Those form lines suggest she deserves her opportunity against this level of opposition.

Flemington should also suit her racing style.

Her ability to sustain a powerful finishing run could prove particularly valuable on the spacious circuit, especially if the track begins to favour runners making their runs away from the inside.

With the possibility of a genuine test over 1600m on rain-affected ground, her excellent distance record is another major positive.

There is no doubt she's facing stronger opposition, but her current form suggests she's capable of measuring up.

And at $11, the market is offering an attractive price for a mare with so much in her favour.

Gator's Verdict: Unleeshing is flying, boasts an outstanding record at the mile and has the form to suggest she can compete at Group 1 level. At $11, she's the value runner in the Empire Rose Stakes.

 

2nd – #3 Surfin’ Bird

Surfin' Bird brings an outstanding record into the Empire Rose Stakes and looks one of the strongest winning chances in the field.

Her latest victory was particularly impressive, defeating two male runners who have already won at Group 1 level.

That performance demonstrated her ability to compete against quality opposition and confirmed she's in excellent form.

Her previous victory at Caulfield was also outstanding.

Gator noted that her performance rating that day was comparable to the rating recorded by Lady Shenandoah, highlighting just how strong her form has been.

But perhaps the most compelling statistic is her record at the distance.

Surfin' Bird is unbeaten from five starts over 1600m.

That's an exceptional record heading into a Group 1 mile contest.

She has repeatedly demonstrated her ability to perform over the distance, and there are few runners in the field with such a reliable profile.

The step into this assignment presents another challenge, but her recent performances suggest she's more than capable of handling it.

Gator's Verdict: Surfin' Bird is a major winning chance after defeating Group 1-winning males last start. Her perfect five-from-five record at 1600m makes her extremely difficult to overlook.

 

3rd – #1 Lady Shenandoah

Lady Shenandoah is a proven Group 1 performer who returns to fillies and mares' company after an outstanding victory in the Toorak Handicap.

Her latest performance was particularly courageous.

Carrying 58kg against the males, she fought strongly to claim the Group 1 feature, demonstrating both her class and determination.

That victory provides an excellent form reference heading into Saturday.

She now returns to weight-for-age conditions against her own sex, which looks a suitable assignment.

Her record at 1600m is another significant positive.

Lady Shenandoah has suffered just one defeat at the mile, and that came when finishing only 0.8 lengths behind Idle Flyer.

On that occasion, Idle Flyer enjoyed the advantage of making the final challenge after Lady Shenandoah had already committed to her run.

The narrow margin highlights how closely matched the two mares can be under suitable conditions.

With her recent Group 1 victory and proven ability over the distance, Lady Shenandoah deserves considerable respect.

Gator's Verdict: A tough Group 1 Toorak winner who is ideally suited returning to weight-for-age racing against mares. One of the leading chances.

 

4th – #10 Concord Connie

Concord Connie is a mare David Gately has been waiting to see over 1600m at Flemington.

And Saturday could finally provide the opportunity for her to produce a career-best performance.

Her first-up effort was encouraging despite racing wide, suggesting she had returned in excellent order.

She then produced another outstanding performance at Caulfield, charging home against a severe track bias that made life extremely difficult for runners attempting to make ground.

It was a run with considerable merit, particularly given the disadvantage she faced.

Gator has believed for two preparations that Concord Connie would be ideally suited by Flemington and the mile.

That assessment stems partly from her extraordinary victory over 1400m at the track.

The performance left such a strong impression that immediately after the race, Gator believed he had witnessed a future Group 1 winner.

Now she gets the opportunity to prove it.

The rise to 1600m looks suitable, while Flemington's long home straight should allow her to build momentum and unleash her powerful finish.

If the track pattern shifts away from the inside as the afternoon progresses, that could also work in her favour.

Gator's Verdict: Concord Connie has been crying out for Flemington over 1600m. Her recent efforts have been excellent, and she's a must for all multiples and exotics.

 

5th – #2 Idle Flyer

Idle Flyer is another mare whose recent form is better than her finishing positions might suggest.

She's endured difficult runs at her past two starts, covering significant extra ground after being caught wide.

Those performances are worth forgiving when assessing her chances on Saturday.

Her previous preparation provides a much stronger indication of her ability.

Idle Flyer defeated Lady Shenandoah over 1600m under set-weight conditions, proving she has the class to match one of the leading contenders in this field.

That result is particularly relevant given Lady Shenandoah's subsequent Group 1 success.

Idle Flyer also contested the Empire Rose Stakes last year, when she attracted strong market support.

However, she failed to perform to expectations, with that appearance coming at the end of her preparation.

Gator believes there are valid reasons to overlook that result rather than treating it as a true reflection of her ability.

If she can secure a more economical run this time, she's capable of producing a much stronger performance.

Gator's Verdict: Idle Flyer has had excuses at her past two starts and has previously beaten Lady Shenandoah over the mile. Don't underestimate her ability to bounce back.

 

David Gately’s 2026 Empire Rose Stakes Top Five

Rank	Runner	Key Form
1st	#5 Unleeshing	Four wins from five starts at 1600m; $11 value
2nd	#3 Surfin' Bird	Unbeaten in five starts at the mile
3rd	#1 Lady Shenandoah	Group 1 Toorak Handicap winner
4th	#10 Concord Connie	Strong recent finishes; suited at Flemington
5th	#2 Idle Flyer	Previous 1600m win over Lady Shenandoah

 

Empire Rose Stakes Final Verdict

The 2026 Empire Rose Stakes brings together several outstanding mares, and there are strong winning claims across the leading contenders.

Surfin' Bird has a remarkable record at 1600m and arrives following an impressive victory against Group 1-winning males.

Lady Shenandoah is already proven at the highest level and looks well placed returning to weight-for-age conditions against her own sex.

Concord Connie is a particularly interesting runner stepping up to the mile at Flemington, while Idle Flyer has the ability to improve sharply with a more favourable run.

However, Gator believes Unleeshing offers the strongest combination of current form, distance suitability and betting value.

Her latest victory was brilliant, and her four wins from five starts at 1600m demonstrate just how effective she is over the trip.

Although she faces a significant rise in class, her form through Polymnia and Decorum suggests she's capable of measuring up.

At around $11, she looks an attractive option in a competitive Group 1 feature.