Horse Racing Tips for Black Caviar Lightning Sprint 2026

A fascinating renewal of the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning shapes as a tactical contest from barrier rise to the winning post, with several headline sprinters from last season resuming in a compact but high-quality field.

With only a small number engaged down the straight 1000 metres, genuine tempo looks limited.

That places the onus on backmarkers to stay within striking range by the 400-metre mark, as this race will be decided quickly once pressure is applied.

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Neil Evans – Black Caviar Lightning Preview 2026

Flemington – 1000m – Group 1

Track Conditions

The track is rated a Good 4 and may firm further given there is no rain forecast.

Winds are predicted, but not to the extent seen at the previous Flemington meeting when the rail was out 9 metres.

The rail is now back in the True position and, with no racing here for four weeks, the surface presents as fresh ground.

Historically, that profile tends to favour runners on or near the speed.

 

The Speed Map

Golden Rose winner Beiwacht, resuming, appears the likely leader.

Golden Slipper winner Marhoona can settle just off the pace, with Military Tycoon holding a position closer to the inside.

Baraqiel can slot in one to two lengths off the speed, while Giga Kick will naturally drift back in running alongside Bennedetta from the inside draw.

Tentyris has drawn wider and will ease toward the rear, although in a small field he should only be a few lengths off the lead.

My Gladiola, drawn the outside, maps similarly.

Overall, it shapes as a race where positioning through the first 600 metres will be critical.

 

 

The Favourite – Tentyris

Tentyris heads the market after a dominant Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes victory that capped a progressive spring campaign.

He handles the straight course and has been prepared with two jump-outs.

However, at around $2.35 to $2.40 early, the quote looks tight against seasoned older sprinters first-up.

I've assessed him closer to $3.60 in this company.

If the early tempo is moderate, there is some risk he may be forced to sprint sharply from the 350m without sufficient pressure up front.

 

 

Neil’s Best Bet – Baraqiel

Baraqiel appeals as the early value play at better than $7.00.

He boasts a strong fresh and second-up record, unbeaten in four runs across those stages, and six of his eight career victories have come on Good ground.

His most recent Flemington jump-out win was strong through the line, and his closing sectionals have consistently been a feature of his profile.

I certainly don't subscribe to the theory that Baraqiel is a specialist "bend" runner.

He simply needs cover over the first 600m before producing that customary booming finish.

 

Baraqiel wins the G1 Moir Stakes in Spring 2025 

 

The Dangers

Giga Kick ($4.60) – Commands huge respect. Trialled well and has a proven record producing sharp late sectionals when fresh.

 

Tentyris ($2.35) – High-class colt who will be charging late. The query is whether the tempo will allow him to wind up in time.

 

Beiwacht ($8.50) – Talented three-year-old who can control proceedings on firm ground and prove difficult to run down if left alone in front.

 

Neil’s Top Four

1. Baraqiel

2. Giga Kick

3. Tentyris

4. Beiwacht 

 

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