Horse Racing Tips for Blue Diamond Stakes 2026

A compelling Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes shapes as a tactical two-year-old contest, where the result may ultimately hinge on how much pressure the leading on-speed runners are forced to absorb.

Unbeaten colt Big Sky headlines the market after two dominant front-running wins.

The key question is whether he controls proceedings again from a favourable draw, or whether early pressure from outsiders ensures the race is set up for a runner finishing off.

There is a clear gap on ratings between the leading single-figure chances and the remainder of the field, reinforcing the expectation that the winner will come from the main group of contenders.

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Neil Evans – Blue Diamond Stakes Preview 2026

 

Track Conditions

Caulfield is rated a Good 4 with no rain forecast, and the rail returns to the True position after being out 8 metres for the Prelude meeting a fortnight ago.

The inside section of the track presents as fresher ground, and with the rail back in its true spot, it is difficult to see this race being won by anything settling too far from the lead.

Positioning within a few lengths of the speed looks crucial.

 

The Speed Map

Early pressure looks genuine.

Big Sky is the likely leader, but roughie I Am Aria is expected to press forward and ensure the tempo is honest.

Closer To Free rolls across from a middle draw and should settle right on the speed, while Zambales and Streisand position just behind the leading group.

Guest House maps for an ideal run with cover a few lengths off the pace.

Lady Moscato can punch forward from a low barrier to land in the first half dozen.

Unit Five settles midfield or worse off the fence, alongside Eternal Warrior, while Ghana’s Akan is likely to drift further back.

The tempo should be strong enough to test the 1200m stamina of all runners.

 

The Favourite – Big Sky

Big Sky has done little wrong to date. His effortless victory in the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes stamped him as a genuine Blue Diamond contender, and early odds around $4.80 looked appealing.

That said, this is deeper company, and he steps up to 1200 metres for the first time.

He will need to absorb sustained pressure if challenged early, but with 57kg and natural speed, he remains a major player.

 

 

Neil’s Best Bet – Guest House

Guest House appeals as the value runner in the race around the $6.00 mark.

He was very good second-up in the colts and geldings Prelude, hitting the line strongly from well back off a six-week break over 1100 metres.

By Home Affairs, he should be suited stepping to 1200 metres and draws to settle closer in running this time.

With a clear run from the turn, he has the closing strength to be right in the finish and looks the runner peaking at the right time.

 

The Dangers

Big Sky ($4.80)
Can control the race from the front and will attempt to break them from the 400m mark.

Unit Five ($6.50)
Kept ticking over with jump-outs after an explosive win in the 2YO Magic Millions Classic on the Gold Coast. Smart and proven under pressure.

Closer To Free ($8.50)
Tracked the speed and finished strongly to win the Prelude on debut. Natural improvement expected.

 

Neil’s Top Four

1. Guest House

2. Big Sky

3. Unit Five

4. Closer To Free

This Blue Diamond shapes as a high-pressure contest where tactical positioning and timing will be decisive, and it promises to be one of the standout juvenile clashes of the carnival.

 

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