Horse Racing Tips for The Australian Cup 2026

Last Saturday’s William Reid Stakes looked a relatively straightforward Group 1 on paper, but with favourite Jimmysstar failing, it opened the door for Jigsaw to continue building on an impressive winning streak.

This week presents a far more challenging puzzle, but these are the races punters love.

There are multiple winning chances across the field, and while that makes it difficult to assess, it also creates genuine betting opportunities.

The aim here is to narrow it down to a few key runners who can return a profit.

You can grab my full tips package via the link below.

 

 

Cody Lane – Australian Cup Preview 2026

Track Conditions

Current Rating: Good 4

Expected Rating: Soft 6. This will need reassessment on Saturday after rainfall, but Flemington’s excellent drainage makes it unlikely the track reaches heavy conditions.

Running Rail: True

Track Bias: None expected

 

Speed Map & Race Shape

Leaders:
Pride Of Jenni (10) will roll forward and control the race as she typically does.

On pace:
Philia (7), Light Infantry Man (9) and Just Fine (11)

Midfield:
Damask Rose (1), Birdman (5), Sabaj (6) and Tom Kitten (12)

Rear:
Apulia (2), Leica Lucy (3), Mark Twain (4) and Basilinna (8)

 

Race Shape:

Pride Of Jenni will roll across from barrier 10 and dictate the tempo.

If she is allowed to control the race, she will break many of these, and only the strongest stayers will be able to run her down.

The key to the race will be how much pressure she faces and whether the chasers can sustain a long run.

 

 

Australian Cup Facts You Must Consider

• Light Infantry Man is looking to become only the ninth dual winner of this race and the fourth since 2003.
• This race has produced plenty of big priced winners, with an average winning price of $15.94 over the last 17 years.
• Only five mares have won this race in the last 35 years, and just two in the last 25 years.
• Seven of the last nine winners have been geldings.
• In the last 15 years, barriers 4 and 8 have been the most successful, while barriers 1, 3, 6 and 11 have not produced a winner in that time.
• The last three winners of this race all came through the All Star Mile at their previous start.

 

Selections and Analysis

1st – #1 Tom Kitten $5.00

The last start All Star Mile winner, which has produced the last three winners of this race, looks the best bet at the price.

He was strong through the line in that race and stepping up to 2000 metres should suit him perfectly.

While he has not won third up from six attempts, he looks a different horse this preparation and can be trusted to run to his peak.

He profiles similarly to Cascadian, who won this race in 2023 and 2024, and that comparison is hard to ignore.

A wet track will not worry him, and while Craig Williams will need to produce a quality ride from the wide barrier, he has built a strong association with the horse and should give him every chance.

 

 

2nd – #6 Sabaj $12.00

He shapes as the value play in the race.

This is his first attempt at 2000 metres, but he looks the type who will relish the trip, particularly based on how he finished off in the All Star Mile where he ran the second fastest last 200 metres.

This four year old gelding arguably has the most upside in the field, which makes him a genuine wildcard.

He has already shown he can handle wet ground and looks capable of running into the finish at a good price.

 

3rd – #5 Birdman $3.50

He is racing extremely well and has had a perfect preparation leading into this.

Wins in the Blamey Stakes and Peter Young Stakes were strong, and he looks well suited stepping to 2000 metres where he has already performed well.

The main concern is whether he can run down Pride Of Jenni if she controls the race. Until that is proven, it is difficult to take a short price.

 

4th – #8 Pride Of Jenni $4.60

This is her third attempt at this race and her second time coming through the All Star Mile, where she ran second in 2024.

Her fresh run this campaign was solid enough, but the key concern is the distance.

Her last three runs at 2000 metres have been well below her best, finishing a combined 42 lengths from the winner.

Until she proves she can run out a strong 2000 metres at this stage of her career, it is hard to be confident in her at the current price.

 

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