Horse Racing Tips for The Coolmore Stud Stakes 2026

Flemington Track Conditions

Expected Track Rating: Soft 6, potentially slightly firmer
Rail Position: True

Flemington is expected to improve to a Good 4 surface between Thursday afternoon and Friday, but rain forecast for Saturday could see conditions deteriorate again.

With several races scheduled before the Coolmore Stud Stakes, I'm working around a Soft 6 rating by the time the field jumps, although the surface could be slightly firmer.

The rail remains in the True position following last Saturday's meeting.

As the afternoon progresses and more runners use the racing surface, I expect a gradual trend away from the inside section of the straight.

That could prove particularly important in the Coolmore, where runners are likely to search for the best ground as they approach the final stages.

Any developing track bias will need to be monitored closely.

 

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Neil Evans’ 2026 Coolmore Stud Stakes Preview

Coolmore Stud Stakes Speed Map – Who Leads?

There's no shortage of early speed in this field, and I expect the runners to form a large group through the middle of the Flemington straight.

With several horses capable of racing prominently, the pressure could remain strong throughout.

Leaders – Paradoxium & Pembrey

Paradoxium looks the most likely leader, with connections expected to push forward from a wide barrier and take up a prominent position.

Pembrey should settle to his inside, while Natural Fling is likely to work across and position himself immediately behind the leading pair.

These runners should establish the early tempo, although they'll have plenty of company.

On-Pace – Under Focus & The Machine Gun

Under Focus is expected to make use of the inside draw and push forward into the next group.

The Machine Gun should also be prominent, adding further pressure to the leading division.

With multiple runners looking to secure forward positions, there may be little opportunity for the leaders to enjoy an uncontested run.

Midfield – Steel Will, Mbube, Satono Glow & Alibaba

Steel Will should settle in the following division after working across from a wider barrier.

Mbube is expected to race nearby, while Satono Glow should secure cover and settle into a comfortable rhythm.

Alibaba looks likely to settle around midfield towards the outside, with Stretton Ruler positioned to his inside.

St Gotthard should also settle around this section of the field.

Rear – The Next Episode, Marffiano & Doubt Time

The Next Episode is expected to settle in the final third of the field, towards the outside rail.

That position should allow him to conserve energy before launching his powerful finishing burst.

Marffiano is likely to drift back from a low barrier, while Doubt Time should be restrained towards the tail.

 

Expected Race Shape

I'm anticipating a genuinely run race, with pressure building from the opening stages.

Despite the large field, I don't expect the runners to become too spread out.

There could be only four or five lengths between first and last approaching the 400m.

That's when the race should really begin.

With the leaders potentially vulnerable after absorbing early pressure, the stage could be set for a powerful finisher to sweep down the outside.

And that's exactly the scenario I want for The Next Episode.

 

The Favourite – The Next Episode ($3.80)

The Next Episode is an exceptionally talented colt who still has significant improvement ahead of him.

He might remain a work in progress, but what we've seen so far suggests he has the potential to develop into one of Australia's leading sprinters.

His most recent appearance came four weeks ago in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes over 1100m at Flemington.

That performance was explosive.

He produced a devastating finishing burst to claim victory, demonstrating the acceleration and sustained speed that make him such an exciting prospect.

Since then, connections have kept him ticking over with jump-outs rather than rushing him back to the races.

That approach should have him in excellent order for Saturday's Group 1 assignment.

Another major advantage is his outstanding record on rain-affected ground.

The Next Episode is unbeaten from four starts on rain-affected tracks.

That's a significant statistic given the forecast conditions at Flemington.

In fact, the softer the track becomes, the more appealing his chances look.

The early market offered $3.80, which I considered excellent value even against such a talented field.

My assessment has him considerably shorter.

I rate The Next Episode a $2.50 chance, making him the clear horse to beat in this year's Coolmore Stud Stakes.

 

 

The Main Dangers

Natural Fling – $6.50

Natural Fling is one of the runners I expect to produce a particularly strong performance on Saturday.

He was extremely gallant when finishing behind The Next Episode in the Danehill Stakes, and that form provides an excellent reference heading into this race.

Importantly, he's now fourth-up from a spell.

That fitness profile suggests he should be approaching his peak, and his recent performances indicate he's capable of competing strongly at this level.

From a tactical perspective, Natural Fling should settle close to the speed without necessarily being forced to lead.

If he can secure a comfortable position behind the early leaders, he'll have every opportunity to challenge when the pressure increases.

Natural Fling is my main danger to The Next Episode.

 

 

Satono Glow – $4.80

Satono Glow brings outstanding Sydney form into the Coolmore Stud Stakes following his impressive victory in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes at Rosehill.

That performance showcased his considerable ability.

He produced a powerful sweeping run to claim victory, demonstrating the acceleration required to compete against high-quality sprinting opposition.

His versatility is another major positive.

Satono Glow has shown he can perform under a variety of track conditions, which removes some of the uncertainty surrounding Saturday's weather.

He should also secure a favourable midfield position with cover, allowing him to conserve energy before being produced into the race.

There's no questioning his class, and he's a genuine winning chance.

Satono Glow is a major threat if he reproduces his Roman Consul performance.

 

 

Pembrey – $11.50

Pembrey is an exciting filly who adds another intriguing element to this year's Coolmore Stud Stakes.

She returns following a seven-week freshen-up, with connections opting to give her time between assignments.

Her recent trial was encouraging, suggesting she's ready to produce a strong performance on her return.

The forecast rain is another positive.

Pembrey has demonstrated an ability to perform on soft ground, and any deterioration in the track should suit her.

She also possesses the early speed to secure a prominent position, potentially settling just inside the leader.

That tactical advantage could prove important if runners closer to the speed remain competitive.

At $11.50, she offers an appealing option for those looking beyond the leading market chances.

Pembrey is a talented filly capable of running a much bigger race than her odds suggest.

 

 

Neil Evans’ Best Bet – The Next Episode

The Next Episode is the horse I want to be with in this year's Coolmore Stud Stakes.

He's a powerhouse finisher with an outstanding turn of foot, and the expected race shape looks almost perfectly designed for his racing style.

There's plenty of early speed, and with several runners likely to push forward, I expect genuine pressure to develop well before the field reaches the final 400m.

That should give The Next Episode the opportunity to settle towards the rear, conserve energy and wait for the right moment to launch his challenge.

The key will be getting into clear running towards the outside.

If he can move into the preferred ground and begin building momentum from the 400m, I expect him to unleash a devastating finishing burst over the final 300m.

His victory in the Danehill Stakes showed just how effective he can be over the Flemington straight.

He was explosive that day, and I believe there's still considerable improvement to come.

The four-week break between runs is no concern, particularly given he's been kept up to the mark with jump-outs.

And the possibility of a rain-affected track only strengthens his claims.

With four wins from four starts on rain-affected ground, he's proven he can handle the conditions that may confront the field on Saturday.

There's also the bigger picture to consider.

This is a colt with enormous potential, and I wouldn't be surprised if he develops into one of the leading contenders for The Everest in 2027.

That's how highly I rate him.

The Coolmore Stud Stakes is a major test, but everything about the race setup suggests he's ready to take another significant step forward.

At the early $3.80, The Next Episode represented outstanding value against my rated price of $2.50.

He's my clear top selection and the runner I expect to be charging over the top of his rivals in the closing stages.

 

Neil Evans’ 2026 Coolmore Stud Stakes Top Four

Rank	Runner	Early Odds
1st	The Next Episode	$3.80
2nd	Natural Fling	$6.50
3rd	Satono Glow	$4.80
4th	Pembrey	$11.50

 

Coolmore Stud Stakes Final Verdict

The 2026 Coolmore Stud Stakes shapes as a thrilling Group 1 contest, with an abundance of early speed and several outstanding three-year-old sprinters ready to test themselves down the Flemington straight.

Natural Fling has strong form around the favourite and looks ready to peak fourth-up, while Satono Glow arrives following an impressive Roman Consul Stakes victory.

Pembrey also deserves consideration, particularly if the track deteriorates into the Soft range.

However, I believe The Next Episode has the strongest winning claims.

His explosive Danehill Stakes victory, unbeaten record on rain-affected ground and powerful finishing ability make him exceptionally well suited to the expected conditions.

With genuine pressure anticipated up front, he should have the opportunity to settle back before charging down the outside over the final 300m.

He's already shown tremendous ability, and I suspect we've only scratched the surface of what he can achieve.

Best Bet: The Next Episode – Rated $2.50 | Early Market $3.80

Check out all my early selections at The Great Tip Off for Saturday's triple Group 1 meeting at Flemington.