Horse Racing Tips for The Melbourne Cup 2026

Neil Evans’ 2026 Melbourne Cup Preview – Runner-by-Runner Analysis & Best Bets

 

Flemington Track Conditions – Melbourne Cup Day

Track Information	Details
Race	Melbourne Cup
Distance	3200m
Expected Track Rating	Soft 5
Rail Position	+3m
Field Size	24 runners

Some rain in the lead-up to Melbourne Cup Day is expected to leave Flemington racing on a Soft 5 surface.

The rail moves out 3m from the True position used on Derby Day, placing it over ground that has already seen considerable racing.

That could become an important factor as the meeting progresses.

Neil expects runners to gradually move away from the inside section of the track, with the preferred racing lanes potentially shifting wider as the day wears on.

Finding clear running away from the rail could prove crucial, particularly for runners settling towards the rear of the field.

 

Melbourne Cup 2026 – Runner-by-Runner Preview

 1. Sons And Lovers – $23

Dylan Brown McMonagle | Barrier 3 | 57.5kg

Sons And Lovers is a tough international stayer who arrives with strong credentials.

The Group 2 winner in France is one of five representatives from the powerful Joseph O'Brien stable and brings proven staying ability into the race.

Despite having seven weeks between runs, he should retain plenty of residual fitness and looks capable of producing a peak performance.

Barrier three is a significant advantage, allowing him to settle into a favourable position without covering unnecessary ground.

Neil believes the market has underestimated his chances, particularly given the quality of his overseas form.

Verdict: A genuine each-way chance and well over the odds.

 

 2. Trustyourinstinct – $9

James McDonald | Barrier 18 | 57kg

Trustyourinstinct is another strong international contender from the Joseph O'Brien stable.

He produced an outstanding performance to win the Group 2 Curragh Cup in July, carrying 5kg more than his Melbourne Cup allocation.

That victory demonstrated his ability to handle a demanding staying journey, and he arrives following a similar break between runs.

The major concern is barrier 18.

James McDonald will need to find cover without sacrificing too much ground, particularly during the early stages.

However, there are few doubts about his ability to run out the 3200m.

Verdict: A major winning chance if McDonald can find cover.

 

 

 3. Knight's Choice – $41

Robbie Dolan | Barrier 2 | 56.5kg

The shock 2024 Melbourne Cup winner returns for another attempt at the famous staying contest.

However, his recent form suggests he faces a significantly tougher task this time.

Knight's Choice endured a difficult run in the Caulfield Cup, and while barrier two should allow him to settle comfortably, Neil believes he lacks the form required to trouble the leading contenders.

Verdict: Previous Cup winner, but looks outclassed on current form.

 

 4. Middle Earth – $13

Mark Zahra | Barrier 1 | 56.5kg

Middle Earth is one of Neil's leading winning chances and looks ideally suited by the rise to 3200m.

The seven-year-old has been finishing strongly in his recent Group 1 lead-up races, producing encouraging performances without necessarily attracting significant attention.

His closing efforts suggest he's been looking for a longer staying journey.

Barrier one should allow Mark Zahra to secure an economical run, conserving valuable energy for the final stages.

The main challenge will be finding clear running when the pressure increases.

If Zahra can work into the open from the 800m mark, Middle Earth has the stamina and finishing ability to make a serious impact.

He also appreciates firmer ground, which should suit the expected conditions.

Verdict: One of the strongest winning chances. The 3200m looks ideal, provided he finds clear running.

 

 5. Vauban – $61

Jordan Childs | Barrier 22 | 56.5kg

Vauban returns for another Melbourne Cup attempt, but Neil has significant concerns about his prospects.

Now a nine-year-old, he faces a difficult assignment from barrier 22.

The wide draw could force him to cover additional ground or settle further back than ideal.

Combined with his age and the demanding 3200m journey, Neil believes his winning chances are extremely limited.

Verdict: Cannot recommend from the wide barrier.

 

 6. Enfjaar – $21

Ray Dawson | Barrier 8 | 56kg

Enfjaar is another UK visitor who brings encouraging form into the Melbourne Cup.

He finished strongly in the Caulfield Cup, suggesting he's in good order heading into Tuesday's assignment.

However, the additional distance presents a significant challenge.

While his recent performance was encouraging, Neil remains unconvinced that Enfjaar will be effective over the full 3200m.

Verdict: Good Caulfield Cup effort, but the two-mile journey is a major concern.

 

 

 7. Royal Supremacy – $51

Ben Allen | Barrier 21 | 56kg

Royal Supremacy looks the most likely leader in this year's Melbourne Cup.

Despite drawing barrier 21, he should push forward and attempt to establish the early tempo.

However, that approach could prove costly.

He'll need to work across from a wide position while carrying 56kg, and maintaining that effort over 3200m will be extremely difficult.

Verdict: Likely leader, but would need an exceptional performance to win from this draw and weight.

 

 8. Wine Dark Sea – $51

Damien Lane | Barrier 23 | 56kg

Wine Dark Sea is a high-class UK visitor who could improve sharply on his Caulfield Cup performance.

The additional distance should suit, and his overseas form suggests he has the ability to be competitive in staying company.

However, barrier 23 presents a significant challenge.

He'll likely need to work forward to secure a position near the speed, potentially using valuable energy in the process.

Despite the possibility of improvement, Neil believes there are stronger winning chances in the field.

Verdict: Capable of improving over 3200m, but the wide barrier makes his task difficult.

 

 

 9. Asterix – $61

Jye McNeil | Barrier 6 | 55kg

Asterix has struggled to finish off his races at his past two starts.

Those performances raise serious concerns about his ability to run out the demanding Melbourne Cup distance.

Although barrier six provides an opportunity to settle into a suitable position, his recent form doesn't suggest he's ready to produce a competitive performance over 3200m.

Verdict: Recent efforts have been disappointing, and the distance looks beyond him.

 

 10. Goodie Two Shoes – $26

Wayne Lordan | Barrier 19 | 55kg

Goodie Two Shoes is a tough international mare who performed admirably in last year's Melbourne Cup, finishing second.

That experience is an important advantage, demonstrating her ability to handle the Flemington circuit and the demanding staying journey.

She also appreciates dry ground, which would strengthen her chances if conditions remain favourable.

However, barrier 19 presents a difficult challenge, particularly in such a competitive field.

Neil believes she'll need everything to fall into place to improve on last year's result.

Verdict: Proven Melbourne Cup performer, but faces a difficult assignment from the wide draw.

 

 11. Juja Kibo – $11

Sam Clipperton | Barrier 14 | 55kg

Juja Kibo is a progressive six-year-old who appears to be peaking at exactly the right time.

He's won his past two starts over distances up to 2500m, demonstrating strong staying ability and continued improvement.

His recent performances suggest he's ready to tackle the longer journey.

Juja Kibo is expected to settle towards the rear of the field before producing a sustained finishing run.

With 55kg, he looks well placed to make his presence felt over the concluding stages.

Verdict: A genuine each-way chance with strong recent winning form.

 

 

 12. Hopewell Rock – $11

Zac Lloyd | Barrier 15 | 54.5kg

Hopewell Rock is Neil Evans' top selection for the 2026 Melbourne Cup.

The UK visitor produced an outstanding performance in the prestigious Ebor Handicap at York, finishing powerfully to miss victory by just half a head.

That effort was particularly impressive considering he carried 60kg.

He now drops sharply to 54.5kg for the Melbourne Cup, a significant advantage over the demanding 3200m journey.

His previous performance was also excellent, having recorded a strong victory before contesting the Ebor.

Hopewell Rock has already won twice on firmer ground, suggesting the expected Flemington conditions should suit.

He's also bred to stay the full two miles, providing further confidence that the additional distance won't be a concern.

The George Boughey stable has enjoyed an excellent season in the UK, and Neil has no concerns about the horse returning from a ten-week break.

His fresh form is strong enough to suggest he'll be ready to produce his best.

With a favourable weight, proven staying ability and an outstanding recent performance against quality opposition, Hopewell Rock looks ideally placed.

Verdict: Neil's Melbourne Cup Best Bet. Outstanding Ebor performance, favourable weight drop and strong staying credentials.

 

 13. Onesmoothoperator – $71

Declan Bates | Barrier 13 | 54.5kg

Onesmoothoperator will race with blinkers, which could help him concentrate and produce some improvement.

However, his recent performances have been well below the standard required to threaten the leading Melbourne Cup contenders.

Neil believes the addition of blinkers is unlikely to bridge that gap.

Verdict: Needs significant improvement and isn't racing well enough to recommend.

 

 14. Soul Of Spain – $34

Tommy Berry | Barrier 5 | 54.5kg

Soul Of Spain could be one of the forgotten runners in this year's Melbourne Cup.

Although his exposed form may suggest he's outclassed, there are several reasons to consider him at big odds.

He's extremely fit and looks ready for the rise to 3200m.

Barrier five is another advantage, giving Tommy Berry the opportunity to secure an economical run and conserve energy for the final stages.

If the race develops into a genuine staying contest, Soul Of Spain could be capable of outperforming market expectations.

Verdict: A sneaky each-way chance at enormous odds.

 

 15. Zahrann – $26

Ben Melham | Barrier 11 | 54.5kg

Zahrann is an underrated stallion who produced an encouraging finishing effort in the Caulfield Cup.

He continued to work home strongly, suggesting the additional distance could suit.

The addition of blinkers is another interesting factor and may help him race more effectively.

Neil believes Zahrann has the stamina required to run out the 3200m, making him a runner worth including in wider calculations.

Verdict: Better than his odds may suggest. Strong late Caulfield Cup effort and blinkers on.

 

 

 16. So You Are – $13

Rachel King | Barrier 7 | 54kg

So You Are arrives in outstanding winning form, having claimed four consecutive victories up to Group 3 level.

He's extremely fit and receives a significant weight drop for the Melbourne Cup.

Those are obvious positives.

However, Neil has major concerns about his ability to run out the full 3200m.

Despite his excellent recent record, the additional distance looks a substantial challenge against proven international stayers.

Neil believes the market has overestimated his chances.

Verdict: Outstanding recent form, but a major distance query and well under the odds.

 

 17. Future History – $51

Jamie Melham | Barrier 12 | 53.5kg

Future History receives a significant weight drop heading into the Melbourne Cup.

However, his recent performances haven't been strong enough to suggest he's capable of threatening the leading contenders.

Despite the favourable weight allocation, Neil believes he needs to produce substantial improvement.

Verdict: Recent form isn't strong enough, despite the weight relief.

 

 18. James J Braddock – $18

Craig Williams | Barrier 24 | 53.5kg

James J Braddock is a lightly raced international visitor with some staying potential.

However, his racing style and barrier draw create significant concerns.

He's a genuine one-paced stayer who would appreciate wetter conditions than those currently expected.

Drawing barrier 24 makes his task even more difficult.

Craig Williams will need to overcome the outside draw while attempting to conserve enough energy for the closing stages.

Verdict: Needs wetter ground, and the outside barrier makes him difficult to recommend.

 

 19. Kizlyar – $34

Beau Mertens | Barrier 20 | 53.5kg

Kizlyar is an emerging five-year-old who could be capable of producing sharp improvement.

He was disappointing when well supported in the betting during his latest Group 2 appearance at Flemington.

However, that performance may not reflect his true ability.

Kizlyar has previously won over 4000m overseas, demonstrating exceptional staying credentials.

That experience suggests the 3200m Melbourne Cup distance should be well within his capabilities.

He's expected to push forward from barrier 20, although securing a suitable position without covering too much ground will be important.

With just 53.5kg, he's not without a chance.

Verdict: Disappointing last start, but proven over extreme distances and capable of improving sharply.

 

 20. Point Of Law – $6.50 fav

Ethan Brown | Barrier 9 | 53kg

Point Of Law is an interesting contender after producing a strong performance to win the Geelong Cup.

That victory was particularly encouraging given he was returning from a 15-week break.

The performance suggests there's plenty of improvement to come, and he should strip fitter for the Melbourne Cup.

Barrier nine is another positive, allowing Ethan Brown to secure a suitable position close to the speed.

However, there remains a slight question about his ability to run out the full 3200m.

If he handles the additional distance, he has the form and potential to be competitive.

Verdict: Progressive Geelong Cup winner with further improvement to come. A top-six chance, although the distance is a slight concern.

 

 

 21. Strictly Business – $71

Dean Yendall | Barrier 4 | 53kg

Strictly Business is a country-trained mare who receives a favourable draw and carries just 53kg.

However, the quality of opposition represents a significant step up.

Despite the advantages of barrier four and a light weight, Neil believes she's outclassed against this field.

Verdict: Well drawn, but looks out of her depth.

 

 22. Mr Monaco – $23

Jabez Johnston (a) | Barrier 16 | 52.5kg

Mr Monaco is one of the more interesting lightweight runners in this year's Melbourne Cup.

The progressive stayer has continued to improve throughout his preparation and produced an excellent performance in his latest Group 2 appearance at Flemington.

He finished strongly on that occasion, suggesting he's ready for the rise to 3200m.

Stamina shouldn't be an issue.

Mr Monaco is a genuine staying type who looks capable of maintaining a strong finishing effort over the demanding journey.

With just 52.5kg, he receives a significant weight advantage over many of his main rivals.

Neil believes he could be one of the better value runners among Ciaron Maher's seven Melbourne Cup representatives.

If the race is run at a genuine tempo, he should be finishing strongly.

Verdict: A genuine lightweight chance. Proven stamina and an encouraging Group 2 lead-up make him one of the better value runners.

 

 23. Zakouma – $26

William Pike | Barrier 10 | 52kg

Zakouma receives a light weight and has the services of William Pike.

However, his preparation raises serious concerns.

Stepping from 1600m to 3200m in just ten days is an enormous challenge, particularly in a race as demanding as the Melbourne Cup.

Neil believes that distance jump is simply too difficult at this level.

Verdict: The rapid rise from a mile to 3200m looks almost impossible.

 

 24. Shockletz – $10

Harry Coffey | Barrier 17 | 51kg

Shockletz is a tough staying type with strong Melbourne Cup bloodlines.

He's by the winner of the 2009 Melbourne Cup and appears well suited to the demanding 3200m journey.

His recent performances have been encouraging, finishing strongly at his past two starts.

Those efforts suggest he's building towards a peak performance.

The biggest advantage is his weight allocation.

With just 51kg, Shockletz receives substantial weight relief compared with many of the leading contenders.

Although barrier 17 presents a challenge, his ability to settle back and finish strongly could prove valuable if the race is run at a genuine tempo.

Verdict: A genuine each-way chance with a light weight and strong staying credentials.

Neil Evans’ Melbourne Cup Best Bets

Best Bet – #12 Hopewell Rock ($11)

Hopewell Rock is the runner Neil Evans wants to be with in the 2026 Melbourne Cup.

The George Boughey-trained visitor arrives following an outstanding performance in the Ebor at York, where he carried 60kg and produced a powerful finishing run to miss victory by just half a head.

That effort demonstrated the stamina and determination required for a demanding staying contest.

His previous victory was equally encouraging, and his form on firmer ground suggests he'll be well suited to Flemington.

The drop to 54.5kg is a major advantage, while his breeding indicates he should have no difficulty handling the 3200m.

Neil also has no concerns about the ten-week break between runs, with Hopewell Rock possessing a strong fresh record.

At $11, Hopewell Rock looks a genuine winning chance and Neil's standout selection for the Melbourne Cup.

 

Main Dangers

#4 Middle Earth ($13)

Middle Earth has been crying out for the 3200m journey and should be at peak fitness following his recent Group 1 lead-up performances.

The seven-year-old appreciates firmer ground and has drawn barrier one, allowing Mark Zahra to conserve energy throughout the race.

The key will be finding clear running from the 800m mark.

If he gets into the open at the right time, he'll be extremely difficult to hold out.

 

#2 Trustyourinstinct ($9)

Trustyourinstinct is a proven international stayer who produced an outstanding performance to win the Group 2 Curragh Cup.

He carried 5kg more than his Melbourne Cup allocation in that victory, demonstrating his ability to handle a demanding staying journey.

The main concern is barrier 18, but James McDonald is capable of overcoming that challenge.

If he finds cover, Trustyourinstinct is a serious winning chance.

 

#1 Sons And Lovers ($23)

Sons And Lovers is a high-class Irish stayer who looks considerably better than his current price suggests.

He has the benefit of a favourable draw and drops 6kg from his previous assignment.

With seven to eight weeks between runs, he should be ready to produce a peak performance.

At $23, he looks one of the strongest each-way opportunities in the race.

 

#22 Mr Monaco ($23)

Mr Monaco is a progressive lightweight stayer who looks ideally suited to the Melbourne Cup distance.

His powerful finishing effort in his latest Group 2 appearance at Flemington was particularly encouraging.

With just 52.5kg, he could be one of the strongest runners over the concluding stages.

At $23, he's a genuine value chance.

 

Neil Evans’ Melbourne Cup Top Six Selections

Rank	Runner	Price
1st	#12 Hopewell Rock	$11
2nd	#4 Middle Earth	$13
3rd	#2 Trustyourinstinct	$9
4th	#1 Sons And Lovers	$23
5th	#22 Mr Monaco	$23
6th	#20 Point Of Law	$6.50

 

Neil Evans' Melbourne Cup Best Bet: #12 Hopewell Rock ($11)

Main Danger: #4 Middle Earth ($13)

Best Value Chances: #1 Sons And Lovers ($23) and #22 Mr Monaco ($23)

For more expert Melbourne Cup Day selections and racing analysis, check out Neil Evans' tips at The Great Tip Off.