Horse Racing Tips for The Might And Power Stakes 2026

The Group 1 Might And Power Stakes over 2000m is one of three Group 1 features at Caulfield on Saturday, and all eyes will be on superstar mare Sheeza Alibi as she attempts to extend her remarkable winning record.

The Moody and Coleman-trained four-year-old has established herself as one of Australia's premier racehorses, winning eight of her 12 career starts.

She is a commanding $1.35 favourite to add another Group 1 to her record.

But this is no straightforward assignment.

Standing in her way are last-start Group 1 Underwood Stakes winner Birdman, a genuine Cox Plate contender, and four-time Group 1 winner Treasurethe Moment, who is proven at the distance.

With only six runners, the race looks likely to develop into a tactical battle rather than a genuine staying contest.

And while Sheeza Alibi is clearly the horse to beat on reputation, there are enough questions surrounding her first attempt at 2000m to make this a race worth betting in.

I'm keen to take on the short-priced favourite, with Birdman looking the value runner capable of causing an upset.

 

 

Cody Lane’s Group 1 Might And Power Stakes Preview – Caulfield 10/10/26

 

Track Conditions

Caulfield was rated a Soft 6 on Thursday morning, but improving weather across Friday and Saturday should see the surface continue to dry.

A Good 4 track is expected on race day, which should provide suitable conditions for all the major contenders.

The running rail returns to the True position after being moved out to 13m at the previous meeting.

Caulfield has traditionally provided a relatively fair racing surface on Guineas Day, although there could be a slight advantage for runners settling close to the speed.

That makes early positioning particularly important in a six-horse field with very little natural pace.

 

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Speed Map & Race Shape

Leader – #5 Treasurethe Moment (Barrier 3)

There are no genuine leaders in this field, but Treasurethe Moment looks the most likely to take up the running.

The four-time Group 1 winner has previously raced prominently over 2000m, and Dan Stackhouse may elect to control the tempo from the front.

Her tactics could ultimately determine how the race unfolds.

 

 

On-Pace – #4 Kingswood (Barrier 5)

Kingswood should work forward under John Allen and settle outside Treasurethe Moment.

He's a proven performer around this distance and has the ability to maintain a position close to the speed without being asked to do too much early.

 

Midfield – #6 Sheeza Alibi (Barrier 6) and #2 Birdman (Barrier 2)

The two leading winning chances should settle immediately behind the pace.

Sheeza Alibi is expected to work across from the outside barrier, while Birdman should enjoy an economical run closer to the fence.

One fascinating tactical possibility is Luke Nolen attempting to keep Ben Melham and Birdman pocketed behind the leaders.

If that happens, Birdman could find himself needing luck at a crucial stage.

 

Rear – #1 Land Legend (Barrier 1) and #4 Torranzino (Barrier 4)

The two staying types are expected to settle towards the rear.

Neither looks likely to inject significant early pressure, although their presence could become more important if the race develops into a genuine staying test.

 

How Will the Race Unfold?

The biggest question is whether the connections of Treasurethe Moment and Kingswood attempt to expose Sheeza Alibi's stamina.

If Stackhouse and Allen allow the field to crawl through the middle stages, the race could become a sprint over the final 400m.

That scenario would play directly into the hands of Sheeza Alibi, whose explosive acceleration has been such a feature of her performances.

However, if they increase the pressure earlier and turn the contest into a genuine 2000m staying test, Birdman and Treasurethe Moment become much more dangerous.

I expect a slowly run race that develops into a sit-and-sprint finish, which makes Birdman's positioning and ability to find clear running especially important.

 

 

Might And Power Stakes Trends

History provides several interesting reasons to question the short-priced favourite.

• Favourites have struggled: Since Winx won in 2016, Anamoe in 2022 is the only other favourite to have finished first.

• Odds-on runners have been vulnerable: Since 2019, several heavily backed favourites have been beaten, including Treasurethe Moment at $1.60, Mr Brightside at $1.75, Zaaki at $1.28 and Russian Camelot at $1.40.

• Barrier three has been productive: Three winners in the past decade have jumped from barrier three, while barrier five has historically been the most successful starting position.

• Four-year-olds have a modest record: Only eight four-year-olds have won the race across the past 36 editions.

• Last-start winners have struggled to repeat: Since 2000, only four winners have entered the race off a victory, with Ocean Park in 2012 the most recent to complete the double.

These trends don't determine the result, but they reinforce the risks associated with taking extremely short odds about Sheeza Alibi.

 

Cody Lane’s Selections & Analysis

1st – #2 Birdman (Barrier 2) – $3.70

Birdman is my selection to win the Group 1 Might And Power Stakes.

Taking on a superstar like Sheeza Alibi is always a dangerous proposition, but her first attempt at 2000m creates an opportunity to back a proven Group 1 performer at a considerably better price.

Birdman produced arguably the best performance of his career when winning the Group 1 Underwood Stakes over 1800m last start.

The five-year-old gelding accelerated powerfully in the closing stages, putting his rivals away to score by a convincing 1.8 lengths.

It was the performance of a horse thriving as he steps up in distance.

The rise to 2000m should suit him even better, and the form from that Underwood victory has since been strengthened.

Cosmic Crusader, who finished behind Birdman in the Underwood, subsequently produced a dominant victory in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington.

That gives Birdman's last-start win an even stronger form reference.

The main concern is his barrier.

Drawing gate two should allow him to conserve energy behind the speed, but there is a genuine possibility he becomes trapped on the fence while Sheeza Alibi enjoys an uninterrupted run outside him.

Ben Melham will need to find clear running before the sprint goes on.

Despite that tactical risk, Birdman looks the stronger 2000m horse, and his current price makes him the better betting proposition.

He's also my early selection for the Cox Plate later this month.

At $3.70, Birdman is the horse I want to be backing.

 

 

2nd – #6 Sheeza Alibi (Barrier 6) – $1.35

Sheeza Alibi is an extraordinary mare and deserves her position among the best racehorses in Australia.

But there is a significant difference between being the most talented runner in a race and being a worthwhile bet at $1.35.

The biggest question is the distance.

She's yet to prove herself over 2000m, and even the very best horses can become vulnerable when stepping beyond their established distance range.

We've seen elite mares encounter difficulties when attempting the rise to 2000m, and Sheeza Alibi still needs to demonstrate that her brilliance can be sustained over the longer journey.

What makes her particularly dangerous is the likely race shape.

With little early speed, she should be able to settle comfortably behind the leaders and conserve energy before unleashing her devastating turn of foot.

If Birdman becomes pocketed along the fence, Sheeza Alibi could have the race at her mercy before he finds clear running.

And if she stays the 2000m strongly, her acceleration may simply be too sharp for her opposition.

However, the historical record of short-priced favourites in this race is another reason to be cautious.

Sheeza Alibi can absolutely win, but at $1.35 she is far from unbeatable.

There are enough unanswered questions to oppose her at the price.

 

3rd – #5 Treasurethe Moment (Barrier 3) – $9.50

Treasurethe Moment is the runner who could have the greatest influence on the result.

The four-time Group 1 winner is a proven performer over 2000m, having finished a gallant third in last year's Cox Plate at her most recent appearance over the distance.

Unlike Sheeza Alibi, there are no questions surrounding her ability to run a strong 2000m.

The challenge is whether her connections are prepared to use that stamina advantage.

With little natural speed in the field, Treasurethe Moment looks the likely leader and could dictate the early tempo.

A slowly run race would suit the favourite, allowing Sheeza Alibi to conserve energy before producing her explosive sprint.

But if Dan Stackhouse elects to increase the pressure from further out, Treasurethe Moment could turn the contest into a genuine staying test.

That would give her a much better opportunity to expose any stamina limitations in the favourite.

She's not naturally a horse who wants to charge along in front, but the tactical circumstances might encourage a different approach.

Treasurethe Moment is a genuine winning chance if the race becomes a staying contest, and she looks extremely difficult to leave out of the top three regardless of how it unfolds.

 

4th – #4 Kingswood (Barrier 5) – $14

Kingswood looks the most likely runner to complete the first four.

The 2000m specialist resumed with an excellent victory in the Listed Heatherlie Stakes over 1700m, showing he had returned in terrific order.

He then stepped into Group 1 company in the Underwood Stakes over 1800m, finishing fourth behind Birdman.

That was another respectable performance against stronger opposition.

The rise to 2000m is a positive, and his expected position outside the leader should give him every opportunity to run his race.

However, he faces a difficult task turning the tables on Birdman while also overcoming the class of Sheeza Alibi and Treasurethe Moment.

He'll need one of the leading contenders to perform below expectations to threaten the placings.

Kingswood is a reliable fourth selection and worth including in first-four combinations.

 

Cody Lane’s Top Four

Rank	Runner	Odds
1	#2 Birdman	$3.70
2	#6 Sheeza Alibi	$1.35
3	#5 Treasurethe Moment	$9.50
4	#4 Kingswood	$14.00

 

Cody Lane’s Verdict

The Might And Power Stakes is shaping as a tactical contest between three outstanding racehorses, with the early tempo likely to determine the outcome.

Sheeza Alibi is the obvious horse to beat, but the step to 2000m and her extremely short price create enough uncertainty to look elsewhere.

Treasurethe Moment has the proven stamina to make things interesting, particularly if her connections decide to test the favourite before the home turn.

But Birdman brings outstanding last-start Group 1 form, is ideally suited stepping to 2000m and looks the best betting opportunity in the race.

He'll need some luck from his inside draw, but if Ben Melham can find clear running at the right time, Birdman has the ability to cause an upset.

Best Bet: Birdman – $3.70

 

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