Horse Racing Tips for The Newmarket Handicap 2026

After the spectacular edition of the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes three weeks ago, we get a fascinating rematch here in the Newmarket Handicap.

That Lightning saw emerging superstar Tentyris sprout wings late and run down My Gladiola, and now the pair meet again under very different conditions.

The key factor this time is the handicap scale, which brings a significant weight swing back in favour of those chasing him.

We also have some intriguing wildcards lining up.

War Machine will be looking to bounce back after his shock defeat as a $1.30 favourite first-up, while the Chris Waller pair Angel Capital and Wodeton add plenty of quality to the race.

Bjorn Baker’s speedster Caballus also brings genuine pace to the contest.

Tentyris deserves to be favourite given what he has done so far, but under handicap conditions I think there is definitely scope to bet around him in what shapes as a superb edition of the Newmarket.

You can grab my full tips package via the link below.

 

 

Cody Lane – Newmarket Handicap Preview

Track Conditions

• Current Rating: Good 4

• Expected Rating: Good 4

• Rail Position: 6 metres

• Track Bias: Neutral. Flemington usually gives every horse its chance regardless of the rail position.

 

Speed Map & Race Shape

I expect the race to split into two main groups down the straight.

Caballus should spear forward from the inside division and set the tempo. Horses like Baraqiel, Sepals and Pallaton will likely track just behind him.

From that group, Angel Capital, Gee Gees Mistruth, My Gladiola and Disneck should be looking to run on late.

Closer to the grandstand side, Gallant Son should race on the speed, while War Machine may settle closer if he jumps cleanly.

Tentyris should get a perfect run just behind the leaders alongside fellow three-year-old Wodeton, with Benedetta and De Bergerac likely settling just behind them.

With Caballus expected to run along strongly, I think we’ll see a genuine tempo which should give the backmarkers their chance late.

 

 

Newmarket Handicap Facts to Consider

• Three-year-olds have an excellent record, winning 7 of the past 15 editions (5 of those were colts).

• Barriers 7 and 8 have been the most successful gates since 2009.

• 51.5kg has been the most successful winning weight in that timeframe.

• The average winning price over the past 15 editions is $17.55, showing how often this race produces value winners.

• Outside of Black Caviar ($1.18) in 2011, the next shortest winner was Joliestar at $3.40 last year.

• Godolphin have won three of the past six editions.

 

 

My Selections & Analysis

1st – #14 WODETON ($13)

I’ve said many times with this horse that it would be the last time he takes my money, but here I am again opening the wallet.

Jokes aside, I thought his first-up run in the Eskimo Prince Stakes was excellent. He finished third behind Tempted and Napoleonic, both of whom have since produced strong form.

His closing splits were comparable to Tempted’s, with his last 200 metres only half a second slower despite having to improve his position during the run.

What really caught my eye was his jump-out win up the Flemington straight with blinkers on. He had been trialling without blinkers earlier this prep, and once they went on he looked extremely sharp.

If he jumps cleanly and lands near the speed like he did in that jump-out, I think he can get a gun run and be right there challenging the favourite.

 

2nd – #7 BENEDETTA ($16)

For me, she was the hard-luck story of the Lightning Stakes.

Despite having very little luck in the run, she still finished the race strongly and produced impressive sectionals.

She now gets a 4kg weight swing on Tentyris, and while he will naturally improve, the price difference between the two is far too wide.

She should be in a similar part of the track as the favourite and looks a terrific each-way play.

 

3rd – #2 TENTYRIS ($2.30)

I have to include him in the top three because the horse is simply a freak.

But I do think he has been harshly treated by the handicap conditions, and that makes the current price far too short.

If he wins this with 57kg as a three-year-old, he will achieve something not done since Ajax in 1938.

He’ll get every chance in the run and is clearly the horse to beat, but at $2.30 I’m happy to look for value elsewhere.

 

4th – #4 ANGEL CAPITAL ($12)

This four-year-old stallion prospect needs a Group 1 victory to cement his future as a sire, and this race looks like a genuine target.

As a three-year-old he produced several outstanding performances including a huge run in The Everest, a luckless Sir Rupert Clarke, and a placing in the C.F. Orr Stakes behind Jimmysstar.

His first-up run in the Expressway Stakes didn’t work out after barrier issues and racing keenly.

Back in Melbourne, reunited with Ben Melham (three wins from six rides), there’s a real sense of grand final timing from the Waller stable.

 

My Newmarket Handicap Top Four

1. Wodeton

2. Benedetta

3. Tentyris

4. Angel Capital

 

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