Horse Racing Tips for The Turnbull Stakes 2026

The Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over 2000m at Flemington is traditionally one of the most important form references of the spring, and Saturday’s edition brings together major players heading towards both the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup.

Current Cox Plate favourite Sir Delius heads the market as he attempts to win the Turnbull for the second consecutive year, but he faces a serious challenge from Aeliana, who is also prominent in Cox Plate betting.

The staying ranks are well represented too. Zahrann, Saint George, She’s A Hustler and Half Yours are among those with bigger spring targets on the horizon, ensuring this race will be dissected closely afterwards.

But before worrying about what it means for the Cups and Cox Plate, there’s a Turnbull Stakes to win.

And with the likelihood of a rain-affected Flemington and very little natural speed in the race, tactics could play a huge role.

 

 

Cody Lane’s Group 1 Turnbull Stakes Preview 3/10/26

Track Conditions

Flemington was rated a Good 3 on Thursday morning, but that is unlikely to be the surface they encounter on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across Thursday, Friday and Saturday, putting a Soft 7 to Heavy 8 firmly in play.

If the predicted Saturday morning thunderstorm arrives, we could easily find ourselves in the Heavy range.

The rail moves out 9m.

That shouldn't have a major impact on races around the bend, particularly on rain-affected ground, although it could favour runners drawn towards the middle and outside in the straight-course races.

 

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Speed Map & Race Shape

Leader

There is a severe lack of natural speed.

Light Infantry Man (3) hasn't led this preparation, but from the good draw he looks the most likely horse to take up the running.

How Harry Coffey rates him in front could have a major influence on the entire race.

 

On Pace

The leading chances should be able to position themselves prominently.

Aeliana (2) draws perfectly to settle immediately behind the leader, while Sir Delius (9) can roll across and look to find a position outside the lead.

Cosmic Crusader (4) should slot in behind that pair and also enjoy an economical run.

 

Midfield

The stayers should begin to appear from midfield onwards.

Zahrann (1), She’s A Hustler (7), Asterix (11), Deakin (12), Saint George (13) and Soul Of Spain (15) are all likely to settle somewhere around the middle of the field.

 

Rear

Expect Ohope Wins (5), Middle Earth (6), Buckaroo (8), Kings Valley (10) and Half Yours (14) to settle towards the rear.

 

Race Shape

This looks like being a genuinely tactical Turnbull.

There is very little pressure on paper, leaving Light Infantry Man with the opportunity to control proceedings.

The most likely scenario is a slow tempo developing into a sit-and-sprint, with the race really starting to build as they approach the final 400m.

That setup could heavily favour horses already within striking distance when they straighten.

 

Turnbull Stakes Trends

There are some interesting historical trends heading into Saturday:

• Barrier 5 has produced three winners across the past 15 years.
• Double-digit barriers have won the past three editions.
• Chris Waller has trained six Turnbull winners across the past 11 years.
• Since 2010, nine winners have carried between 57kg and 58kg.
• Fourteen winners across the past 30 years have been six-year-olds.
• Three winners across the past 15 years have won the Turnbull second-up.

 

 

Cody’s Turnbull Stakes Selections

1st – #Aeliana – $4.00

Aeliana gets the perfect setup third-up over 2000m.

Chris Waller has followed the same progression that worked so successfully during the autumn: 1400m first-up, 1600m second-up and now 2000m third-up.

Last preparation she arrived at this stage and won the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes over 2000m on a Soft 6, defeating Sir Delius in the process.

Her return over 1400m this campaign was disappointing, but she responded strongly second-up when finishing behind superstar Autumn Glow in the Seven Stakes over the mile.

Now she reaches 2000m, should get conditions to suit and, importantly, maps for an ideal run from barrier two.

If this develops into the expected sit-and-sprint, Aeliana should be perfectly positioned to capitalise.

At around $4, she goes on top.

 

 

2nd – #She’s A Hustler – $15.00

She’s A Hustler looks significantly over the odds based on her performance in the Makybe Diva Stakes.

She produced the fastest final 200m of the race and finished only half a length behind Sir Delius.

Yet she now meets the favourite 2kg better at the weights, steps to 2000m second-up and should get conditions to suit.

The concern is the likely race shape. If they crawl through the middle stages, she could be giving the leading chances too much of a start when the sprint goes on.

But if Light Infantry Man ensures there is some genuine tempo, She’s A Hustler can be charging into the finish at a big price.

 

3rd – #Sir Delius – $2.90

Sir Delius demands respect given the strength of his 2000m form and should again receive a favourable run near the speed.

The question is whether $2.90 represents the right betting opportunity.

He has won on a Heavy 8 in Australia, but that victory came in weaker Group 3 company at Doomben. Much of his strongest form has come on firmer surfaces, which he's unlikely to encounter on Saturday.

His class and tactical position should ensure he's firmly involved in the finish, but at the current price I'm looking elsewhere from a betting perspective.

 

 

4th – #Half Yours – $16.00

Half Yours should be one of the horses doing his best work late.

Last year's Caulfield and Melbourne Cup winner produced a big first-up performance in the Makybe Diva Stakes and should take significant improvement from that run.

The step to 2000m second-up is another positive, while any deterioration in the Flemington surface brings his excellent rain-affected record further into play.

He may be spotting the leaders a decent start in a slowly run race, but expect Half Yours to be powering through the line and strengthening his spring credentials.

 

Cody Lane’s Top Four

1. AELIANA – $4.00
2. She’s A Hustler – $15.00
3. Sir Delius – $2.90
4. Half Yours – $16.00

 

Best Bet: Aeliana

The combination of her third-up record, proven 2000m performance on rain-affected ground, favourable draw and likely tactical position gives Aeliana the right setup to defeat Sir Delius and take out the Turnbull Stakes.

 

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