Horse Racing Tips for The Victorian Oaks 2026

The Melbourne Cup Carnival has already delivered some outstanding racing, with several emerging stars announcing themselves on the biggest stage.

Now attention turns to Thursday's Group 1 VRC Oaks at Flemington, where another potential superstar is looking to make her mark.

Unbeaten filly Proxima Dea ($2.30) heads the market after a rapid rise through the ranks and will be looking to extend her winning streak over the 2500m journey.

Trained by David Payne, Proxima Dea has already established herself as one of the most exciting young fillies in the country.

Victory in the Oaks would only strengthen that reputation, although she faces a challenging barrier draw and several talented rivals.

The biggest danger appears to be De Armas ($3.10), who was outstanding winning the Wakeful Stakes on Derby Day and has the advantage of barrier one with James McDonald aboard.

But is this simply a race between the two favourites, or can one of the outsiders upset the market?

GTO racing analyst Cody Lane has assessed the expected track conditions, speed map and leading chances, with Quick Finish ($11) emerging as his best value selection following her excellent third in Saturday's Victoria Derby.

 

 

Cody Lane’s 2026 VRC Oaks Preview – Best Bets, Speed Map & Runner Analysis

 

Flemington Track Conditions – VRC Oaks Day

Track Information	Details
Current Track Rating	Good 4
Expected Track Rating	Good 4
Rail Position	+6m
Race Distance	2500m

Flemington was rated a Good 4 on Wednesday morning, although showers throughout the day were expected to soften the surface by a couple of ratings.

With no rain forecast for Thursday, the track should have sufficient time to dry out before the Oaks, potentially returning to a Good 4 by the time the field jumps.

The running rail moves out to the +6m position, which should provide all runners with a fair opportunity.

Cody isn't expecting any significant track bias, making the speed map and positioning particularly important.

 

VRC Oaks Speed Map & Race Shape

Expected Leaders – Icelady & Quick Finish

Icelady and Quick Finish look the two most likely runners to control the early tempo.

Icelady (barrier 4) should push forward and take up the running, while Quick Finish (barrier 5) can either settle outside the leader or take a sit behind, as she did in Saturday's Victoria Derby.

Both fillies are drawn to enjoy economical runs near the speed.

 

On-Pace – De Armas, Churchill Rose & Proxima Dea

De Armas (barrier 1) should take full advantage of the inside draw and secure the ideal box-seat position behind the leaders.

South Australian visitor Churchill Rose (barrier 10) also prefers to race prominently.

The biggest tactical question surrounds favourite Proxima Dea (barrier 19).

Zac Lloyd faces a difficult assignment from the wide gate and will need to find a way across without covering too much ground.

If he can secure a position with cover, Proxima Dea will be extremely difficult to beat.

 

Midfield

Expensive Taste, Your Colour, Notified, Nikitria and Courting are expected to settle through the middle of the field.

 

Rear

Little Ally Bama, Quynh, Voynichese, Shameful Impulse, Chocolate Freckles, Salann and Tharwa are likely to settle towards the rear.

Several of the longer-priced runners are expected to race midfield or further back, which should benefit the leading market chances by providing them with horses to follow into the race.

 

Expected Race Shape

Cody expects a steadily run Oaks rather than a fiercely contested staying race.

With Icelady and Quick Finish likely to control the tempo, the race could develop into a sprint home over the final stages.

That should favour runners with a strong turn of foot and those able to secure favourable positions without covering additional ground.

 

Cody Lane’s VRC Oaks Best Bets & Selections

1st – #1 Proxima Dea ($2.30)

Proxima Dea is clearly the horse to beat.

The unbeaten David Payne-trained filly has enjoyed a rapid rise to prominence and looks capable of adding another Group 1 victory to her growing record.

Her progression is reminiscent of another outstanding Payne-trained filly, Montefilia, who also won the Spring Champion Stakes before finishing third in the 2020 VRC Oaks.

However, while Montefilia had questions surrounding her ability to run out the 2500m, Proxima Dea looks ideally suited to the longer journey.

The stable is confident in her staying ability, and her performances suggest she'll have no trouble handling the distance.

The biggest concern is barrier 19.

Zac Lloyd will need to produce a clever ride to work across and find cover without leaving the filly exposed.

If he manages that, Cody expects Proxima Dea to extend her unbeaten record with a dominant performance.

The only problem is the price.

At $2.30, there isn't enough value for Cody to recommend backing her.

Cody's Verdict: Clearly the one to beat and capable of winning impressively, but too short to back at $2.30.

 

2nd – #4 De Armas ($3.10)

De Armas is Cody's clear second selection and the biggest threat to the favourite.

The Chris Waller-trained filly produced an outstanding performance to win the Wakeful Stakes over 2000m on Derby Day, having previously raced well without winning earlier in her preparation.

That victory was an ideal lead-up to the Oaks and suggests she's peaking at the right time.

Unlike Proxima Dea, De Armas is almost guaranteed to enjoy a favourable run.

Barrier one should allow James McDonald to settle directly behind the speed and conserve energy throughout the race.

The key will be finding clear running when the field begins to sprint.

Waller and McDonald combined to win Saturday's Victoria Derby, and they'll be looking to complete another major staying feature just five days later.

With the ideal draw, an outstanding lead-up victory and one of Australia's best jockeys aboard, De Armas has plenty in her favour.

Cody's Verdict: Clear second pick. Perfectly drawn and capable of giving the favourite a serious challenge.

 

3rd – #3 Quick Finish ($11)

Quick Finish is Cody's standout value selection for the VRC Oaks.

While several runners are stepping into unknown territory over 2500m, Quick Finish has already demonstrated her staying ability after finishing third in Saturday's Victoria Derby.

That performance against the colts and geldings provides a strong form reference heading into Thursday's assignment.

Backing up from the Derby into the Oaks just five days later might appear a difficult task, but history suggests it's a proven pathway.

Of the 21 fillies to have attempted the Derby-to-Oaks back-up, 12 have finished in the placings, with six going on to win the Oaks.

Those figures provide encouragement that the quick turnaround can be successful.

Quick Finish also benefits from barrier five and should enjoy a soft run near the speed.

With Icelady likely to control the tempo, she can either race outside the leader or settle just behind, conserving energy for the final stages.

At $11, Cody believes she's the best option for punters looking to bet around the two favourites.

Cody's Verdict: Best Value Bet. Proven staying ability, a favourable draw and an excellent historical profile make her a strong each-way chance at $11.

 

4th – #2 Icelady ($8.50)

Icelady rounds out Cody's top four selections and is another filly who should enjoy a favourable run.

Trained by Ciaron Maher and ridden by Ethan Brown, she has been a model of consistency throughout her preparation.

Her performances have been excellent, and she's shown the ability to race prominently and maintain a strong effort.

Barrier four should allow Brown to take up the running without using too much energy.

If Icelady can control the tempo and settle into a comfortable rhythm, she could prove difficult to run down.

The major question is whether she can sustain her effort over the full 2500m.

However, given the form of the Maher stable and Brown's recent success in major races, she certainly can't be dismissed.

Cody's Verdict: Consistent filly who should control the speed. If she stays the distance, she'll take plenty of catching.

 

Cody Lane’s VRC Oaks Top Four Selections

Rank	Runner	Price	Assessment
1st	#1 Proxima Dea	$2.30	Horse to beat, but too short to back
2nd	#4 De Armas	$3.10	Main danger with the ideal draw
3rd	#3 Quick Finish	$11.00	Best Value and each-way selection
4th	#2 Icelady	$8.50	Likely leader who could prove difficult to catch

 

Cody Lane’s VRC Oaks Final Verdict

Proxima Dea is the most talented filly in the field and looks capable of extending her unbeaten record if Zac Lloyd can overcome barrier 19.

Her biggest danger is De Armas, who has the advantage of barrier one and comes into the race following an impressive Wakeful Stakes victory.

However, with both fillies well supported in betting, Cody believes the best opportunity lies with Quick Finish at $11.

She's already proven herself over a staying journey, has drawn to enjoy a favourable run and brings strong Derby form into the Oaks.

Icelady also deserves respect as the likely leader and could take plenty of catching if allowed to control the tempo.

Best Value Bet: Flemington VRC Oaks – #3 Quick Finish ($11), each-way.

Top Selection: #1 Proxima Dea ($2.30).

For more VRC Oaks Day tips and expert racing analysis, follow Cody Lane's selections at The Great Tip Off.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.