Horse Racing Tips for the Winterbottom Stakes 2025

Ascot Racecourse hosts another edition of the iconic Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes this Saturday and while the field is small, the theatre is enormous.

A genuine clash of styles headlines the race:

• Overpass, the proven Sydney warhorse who has dominated this event twice already.

• Jokers Grin, the home-grown superstar with a devastating finishing burst and the highest ceiling in WA sprinting.

Between them sits a field lacking early tempo, meaning tactics will dictate everything.

If Overpass controls the speed, he becomes very hard to catch. But if Jokers Grin gets the last crack, the race may be over in a single explosive burst.

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Neil Evans’ Feature Preview – Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes 2025

Track Conditions

Dry, warm conditions in the lead-up strongly suggest we’ll be racing on a firm Good 4, potentially even nudging a Good 3.

The rail moves out to 8 metres, two wider than last week, which typically makes swooping harder.

However with only nine runners, traffic won’t be severe.

Expect an advantage for on-speed and fence-line runners early, with backmarkers needing class and timing to overcome the pattern.

 

Speed Map

The map is one of the simplest you’ll see in a Group 1:

Overpass rolls straight to the lead from the inside draw.

Oscar’s Fortune parks just off him, one off the rail.

Repossession has the fence behind the speed.

Libertad sits in the second pair inside, with Benedetta outside him.

Jokers Grin settles back as usual, joined by Rey Magnerio, Rope Them In, and Luana Miss from the wider draws.

With no other genuine leaders, expect a controlled early tempo before the pressure ramps up from the 500m.

 

The Favourite – Jokers Grin $2.60

Jokers Grin brings a profile rarely seen in Western Australia.

Elite acceleration, a lethal 400m change-up and the ability to round up fields from impossible positions.

His Group 3 win two weeks ago may have only been by half a length on paper, but in reality he cruised, idled late and was never asked to extend.

The only challenge today is tempo: from a sticky draw, he may need to start his run earlier than ideal if Overpass stacks them up.

This is his third-up peak at his best distance.

If he gets momentum and open air from the 400m, he is simply the most gifted horse in the race.

 

 

Neil’s Best Bet – Jokers Grin

The five-year-old has returned in frightening order, and his Quokka victory earlier this year hinted at Group 1 domination to come.

Overpass will make him earn it, but Jokers Grin is the one with star power that the others don’t possess.

 

The Dangers

Overpass ($2.80)

• The great Sydney raider.

• Should lead comfortably and control the race.

• His Everest run was superb, and his trials since have been sharp.

• If he gets cheap fractions, he can pinch this.

 

Oscar’s Fortune ($19.00)

• Got warm late chasing Jokers Grin last start.

• Fourth-up and out to 1200m suits.

• If Overpass rolls freely, he gets the perfect slipstream.

 

Luana Miss ($9.50)

• The lone three-year-old filly with a big finishing burst.

• Will get back, but has a big weight pull.

• A knockout player if the leaders overdo it.

 

Neil’s Top Five

1. JOKERS GRIN

2. Overpass

3. Oscar’s Fortune

4. Luana Miss

5. Rey Magnerio

 

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