Joliestar in The Shorts: Superstar or Royal Ascot Trap 19/9/26

Joliestar is clearly the horse to beat in Saturday’s Group 2 The Shorts at Randwick, but is she also the horse to back?

Last year’s winner returns after travelling to England and finishing a desperately close third at Royal Ascot.

It confirmed her standing among the world’s best sprinters, but also creates the biggest unknown in the race.

Will her class carry her through, or has the toughest preparation of her career left her vulnerable first-up?

 

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WHY SHE WINS: She may simply be too good!

A proven first-up star

Joliestar has resumed seven times for five wins, a second and a third.

She has never missed a place first-up, so there is little evidence she normally needs a run.

 

She overcame trouble last year

Joliestar won this race last year despite settling back and covering ground.

David Gately makes a compelling case:

“Always trials well/quiet. Back and wide this race last year yet beat them anyway!”

Her recent quiet trial should not necessarily concern punters.

She is rarely asked for everything before race day.

 

 

Class and conditions are on her side

Joliestar knows Randwick and possesses one of the most dangerous finishing sprints in Australian racing.

She was also too good for Headwall when they met in last year’s Newmarket Handicap and now meets him under favourable set-weights-and-penalties conditions.

Headwall may be fitter, but is that enough to bridge the class gap?

 

 

WHY SHE GETS BEATEN: Are punters backing the Joliestar they remember?

The Royal Ascot hangover

This is not a conventional first-up preparation.

Joliestar travelled to England, adapted to different conditions, raced at the elite level and then made the long journey home.

She does not need to have gone backwards dramatically to be vulnerable, being slightly below her best may be enough.

 

 

Her rivals are ready now

Headwall arrives fully fit after a huge second in the Concorde Stakes, while Ninja is an emerging sprinter who may still have considerable improvement to come.

If Joliestar needs the run, this field is good enough to expose her.

 

 

The race could work against her

Joliestar can settle well off the speed, and 1100 metres leaves little room for error.

A moderate tempo, an awkward position or difficulty finding clear running could leave her with too much to do.

At a short price, punters are relying on both the mare and the race unfolding as expected.

 

THE REAL GAMBLE ISN’T HER ABILITY

There is little doubt Joliestar is the best horse in The Shorts.

The question is whether she can return from Royal Ascot close enough to her best to prove it immediately.

Her first-up record, Randwick form and favourable weight conditions say she can.

The international campaign and race-fit opposition provide enough doubt to make things interesting.

The Royal Ascot hangover is the reason she can be beaten.

Everything else says she probably wins anyway.

 

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