Lay Betting Tips: Everest Day Lays 17/10/26

This week we take on two warm favourites at Royal Randwick on a huge Everest Day card, where both face deep fields and come up as excellent risks at their current short quotes.

Late in the day, a glamour mare looks extremely vulnerable in what shapes as a brutal, high pressure race where she could be forced to chase from a long way out before paddling late.

Elsewhere on the card, an O’Shea and Charlton runner looks severely under the odds from a horror draw, with the professional betting teams likely to take him on aggressively inside the final minutes of betting.

 

 

Lays of the Day 17/10/26

Randwick Race 9 #5 Autumn Glow $1.40

Going to pot the raging favourite here, who will certainly know she has been in a race with the eye watering early sectionals likely to be set by Pride Of Jenni.

This shapes as a completely different scenario to the races where she has been able to unleash her freakish finishing sprint, with the relentless tempo likely to have her chasing hard from a long way out.

The concern is that such a brutally run 1600 metres could feel more like 2000 metres, particularly if Pride Of Jenni is allowed to establish a significant break and force the chasing pack to make their moves earlier than ideal.

We all saw what happened when Autumn Glow was stretched to 2000 metres in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, finishing third of seven after appearing to run out of petrol late.

I fear a similar scenario could unfold here, with the tactics of the opposition forcing her to sustain a long chase rather than simply balance up and produce her customary explosive sprint.

She may well look the winner at some stage in the straight, however I can see her peaking on her run around the 150 metre mark before the early exertion begins to tell.

At the poison price of $1.40, the market is effectively asking punters to ignore the significant tactical challenges she faces against quality opposition.

This presents an excellent opportunity to take on a glamour mare at rock bottom odds.

Avoid.

 

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Randwick Race 3 #10 Cross Tasman $2.40

This race has plenty of depth and I doubt diving into the short odds about Cross Tasman is particularly shrewd, with several genuine winning chances elsewhere in the field.

Granted, he has been good at his past two starts and was narrowly beaten last time out at Rosehill over 1400 metres, finishing second of ten and beaten just 0.3 lengths.

However, I believe the market is getting far too carried away with the Decorum form line, which may prove considerably weaker than the recent results suggest.

The speed map is also a major concern.

Barrier 14 from the tricky Randwick 1400 metre starting point presents a significant challenge, with a very real possibility he gets caught wide and is forced to work overtime simply to find a suitable position.

That is hardly the ideal setup for a horse being asked to justify such a short quote in a competitive race.

I expect the professional betting teams will hate the map and be keen to take him on late, with the sharp money likely to arrive for several of his rivals inside the final minutes of betting.

At $2.40, he looks artificially short and I would much prefer to be with the likes of Man Of Worth and Ertijaaj at the bigger prices.

A market drift looks highly likely as we approach start time.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.