Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 12/9/26

Beeso has started spring with a bang, nailing his lays, including hot favourite Natural Fling last Saturday.

This week we focus on two overbet favourites at Flemington who could easily flop considering the challenges they both face.

Midway through the card, a Danny O’Brien mare comes off a poor performance at Caulfield and there must be some concern she is already on the way down this preparation, especially with the stable using the ground as the excuse last time out.

Whilst later in the day, an emerging galloper who is yet to be genuinely tested at Group 1 level is already being hyped as an Everest horse.

At this stage of his career, that talk looks ridiculously premature and has only helped compress his price further.

 

 

James Beeson's Lays of the Day 12/9/26

 

Flemington Race 6 #8 Sass Appeal $2.70

Looks to be off the boil following a poor second up performance at Caulfield over 1400 metres, where her run was very underwhelming and would surely have a few alarm bells ringing at the Danny O’Brien stable.

The stable has suggested she was uncomfortable in the ground last time out, however that excuse may prove weak if she fails again here, particularly if she encounters similar conditions at Flemington.

The long Flemington straight can also be unforgiving for runners who do too much work early. If they elect to press forward again and ride her on speed, she could be left vulnerable when the hard heads start launching late.

There is every chance she looks the winner at some stage before becoming a sitting duck inside the final 200 metres.

She comes up as an excellent risk at the current quote and it would not surprise to see the professional money take her on late, with $3 or better potentially available by start time.

Avoid.

 

Flemington Race 7 #5 Oliveanotherday $1.65

He is clearly talented, however he remains unproven against genuine Group 1 horses and now faces several established Group class hard heads in this Group 2 event.

The market is simply in love with him!

This looks a classic example of a hype horse progressing through the grades, with punters being asked to take rock bottom odds before he has proven himself against opposition of this quality.

He was blessed in running last start, sucking up along the rail before peeling out and zipping over the top with relative ease.

The question is what happens when things do not fall into place?

If he is caught wide, forced to work earlier than expected or encounters a chequered passage, we still do not know how he will respond when subjected to a genuine gut buster against this level of opposition.

He will certainly know he has been in a race on Saturday and the Everest talk surrounding him this week looks ridiculously premature.

At $1.65, the hype is well and truly built into the price.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.