Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 14/2/26

Randwick is again our focus this week, where we have identified two strong risks at short odds.

Early in the day, the two year old race presents an excellent opportunity to oppose the favourite, who has several negatives including an awkward speed map and a tendency to over race through the early stages.

Later on the card, a high quality Chris Waller mare resumes and is almost certain not to be pressured by the rider at this early stage of what shapes as a long autumn campaign.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 14/2/26

Randwick Race 3 #4 Miss Chanel $2.80

This is a tricky two year old contest with depth across the field and the potential for an unpredictable 1100 metre sprint around Randwick.

Early gate speed does not appear to come naturally to her. That was evident in the Widden Stakes at Rosehill, where she had to be bustled along through the first 200 metres.

Several more natural speed horses look capable of dictating terms here and putting her under pressure.

After drawing gate nine, the speed map becomes very uncomfortable.

Those drawn inside are likely to hold their positions and force her to either travel wide throughout or be dragged back and circle the field.

She also has a tendency to over race, and any poor manners in a high-pressure sprint will prove costly.

There are simply too many risks at the current price.

Avoid.

 

Randwick Race 7 #3 Joliestar $2.60

In typical Chris Waller fashion, she appears unlikely to be fully wound up for this first-up assignment and may be using this run as a stepping stone towards larger targets later in the autumn.

There is no doubt she has quality, but her racing pattern will likely see her settling well back in a race that may lack genuine tempo and favour those positioned on or near the speed.

Stable instructions are almost certain to be conservative. It is difficult to see her being asked for a full gut-busting effort at this stage of her campaign.

Expect her to be finishing strongly late, but with fitness not yet at peak level, she may simply run out of time to reel in the leaders.

At the current quote, she represents an excellent risk.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.