Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 18/7/26

This week we have identified two over-bet runners that both come up poison prices and are likely to be held at artificially compressed levels by corporates, due to the expected weight of mug (recreational) investment.

At Flemington Team Hayes have entered a 2yo who is sure to be popular based on the win here at his only career start, however he looks a great risk coming out of that race which was run at a slow tempo.

Whilst at Rosehill a talented horse still has to prove his race manners are acceptable and is a significant chance to over-race again, where at Rosehill this can be lethal.

Featured Stat

Beeso's Lays are on fire!

Reasoning Form Factors

Follow ->

Saturday Lays of the Day 18/7/26

Flemington Race 2 #1 Hard Kick $1.90

Severely over-bet here based on the hype around his only career start at this track and trip where he did win well albeit in a slowly run race. Given more pressure here, it is a completely different set-up and pain barrier!

There will be some talented ones entered elsewhere here with a few trainers holding back their 2yo’s to pick off the weaker Winter races, and I expect a few of these to have been well set-up at home to be winning this.

The stable have a huge following and the bookmakers are well aware the recreational weight of investment will be significant. We can therefore expect they are compressing the price and keeping it artificially short all the way throughout betting.

Watch for the professional teams to get hold of him late and gap the price inside the final minute of trade. Lay.

Rosehill Race 7 #10 Ice Kool $1.70

Racing well and no doubt he is a talent, however comes up an absolute poison price here at the odds-on quote especially considering he is still a high-risk proposition with his racing manners.

There is a huge risk he will over-race again in this and around the tight track of Rosehill it is very unforgiving if this occurs, where position in-run is typically vital.

I can see him pulling his head off again early in the run and potentially being trapped wide, which if the case would certainly require his price to be much longer.

Whilst he gets in well at the weights with just 52.5kg, he is forced to jump up in grade to a tricky race where I believe he has plenty against. Avoid.

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.