Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 19/9/26

Another perfect 2/2 weekend from Beeso last Saturday, now making it 6 successful lays in a row.

He is hitting form at the perfect time of year and is now taking aim at Caulfield risks on Underwood day.

This week we focus on two runners that both have significant challenges to overcome and will naturally attract plenty of mug money following their recent heroics.

Midway through the card, a last start winner draws terribly in gate nine, with Blake Shinn facing a tricky decision early.

Press forward and potentially burn petrol, or drag back and concede valuable ground around Caulfield.

Whilst in the Group 1 feature, the favourite looks extremely vulnerable against a field of proven Group 1 hard heads, with William Pike also under plenty of pressure following the heavy public criticism of his ride on the horse last start.

 

 

James Beeson's Lays of the Day 19/9/26

Caulfield Race 5 #3 Blind Raise $2.70

The mugs have latched on following the flashy first up victory at Sandown, where he won well after enjoying the dream run tucked in just behind the leaders.

This is another step up in grade to Group class where there is far less room for error, and he is unlikely to receive the same charmed run on this occasion.

Barrier nine creates an immediate headache for Blake Shinn, who will need to make an early decision.

Press forward and potentially work overtime to find a position in the moving line, or drag right back and risk spotting some quality opposition a significant head start.

Neither option looks particularly appetising at the current price.

I expect the professional teams to take him on late as they simply will not like the speed map, with the market currently pricing him as though another perfect run is almost guaranteed.

Avoid.

 

Caulfield Race 7 #5 Cosmic Crusader $2.60

I am firmly against the hype horse from the West who has performed well since arriving on the East Coast, however he finally runs into the genuine A Graders here and will need to go to another level.

There are plenty of proven Group 1 hard heads engaged who know exactly how to absorb pressure at this level, making this a completely different challenge.

William Pike also enters the race under plenty of scrutiny following the heavy criticism of his ride last start, where Cosmic Crusader settled a long way back and was left with a mammoth task.

He is almost damned if he does and damned if he does not on Saturday.

The biggest danger is allowing that outside noise to influence the tactics and riding the horse more positively than usual, potentially taking him away from his natural racing pattern and comfort zone.

At the current quote, punters are being asked to take a short price about a horse stepping up against genuine Group 1 opposition with a potentially awkward tactical scenario to overcome.

That looks no value whatsoever.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.