Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 21/2/26

Caulfield is our focus this week, where we have identified two excellent risks that both come up at poison odds as favourites.

Early in the day, a Michael Freedman-trained Sydney raider looks highly vulnerable in a race featuring proven Group-class runners and the progressive Esmahli.

Later, in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes, a hyped mare resumes and faces a tough first-up assignment, likely to be met with early pressure and fitness queries.

Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 21/2/26

Caulfield Race 2 #3 Pallaton $2.60

In what shapes as a hot race, he comes up far too short at $2.60.

He was only fair first up at this track when disappointing as favourite to finish a well beaten fourth of six over 1100 metres.

I am not convinced that stepping to 1200 metres is a clear positive for him.

There appears to be genuine early speed engaged, and if they attempt to hold a forward position, he is unlikely to get it uncontested.

I expect company through the first 400 metres, which will apply pressure and test him late.

Against proven Group performers such as Devil Night, along with the emerging Esmahli, he looks a touch below the required level.

I expect him to be vulnerable again late and found wanting against stronger opposition.

Avoid.

 

Caulfield Race 7 #7 Treasure The Moment $2.00

I am very keen to oppose the resuming mare, who appears unlikely to be fully wound up for this first up run.

There is strong Group class depth in the race, and she has shown in the past that she can produce flat performances when not at peak fitness.

Since her heroics as a three year old she has been treated as a hype horse by the market.

While she performed admirably last season, there remain question marks around her consistency now as an older mare.

If connections elect to take on Evaporate for the lead, she will need to be rock hard fit to absorb that early pressure.

At this stage of her preparation, I doubt she is ready for such a test.

At the current price she represents excellent value to oppose.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.