Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 22/8/26

This week we are focusing on two white hot favourites at Randwick that both come up as excellent risks at their current short quotes in betting.

Midway through the card, the popular Tommy Berry and Michael Freedman combination is likely to be over bet due to the recency bias at play, with their recent success still fresh in the minds of the mug punters.

Whilst later in the day, the first Group 1 of the season sees a classy mare return against a quality field where she may be far from fully wound up, with a long Spring campaign and much bigger targets still ahead.

 

 

James Beeson's Randwick Lays of the Day 22/8/26

Randwick Race 6 #2 Apocalyptic $2.20

First up against a hot field of mares looks the perfect opportunity to take her on, particularly with race fitness a significant query.

As per her typical racing pattern, she could find herself a long way off the leaders and forced to chase hard from well back in the field.

If the pressure goes on from a long way out, the final 200 metres should present a serious fitness test and she may simply have too much ground to make up.

The market is also likely to over bet the Tommy Berry and Michael Freedman combination following their recent success.

With that still fresh in the minds of punters, bookmakers should be happy to keep her artificially short due to the expected weight of recreational investment.

I would much prefer to be with the on pace brigade of Savvy Halle and Gatwick, who should enjoy the tactical advantage and could establish a big enough break to hold the favourite out late.

At the current quote she represents poor value first up.

Avoid.

 

Randwick Race 9 #8 Autumn Glow $1.90

The price looks pure poison to my eye and in a star studded Group 1 with quality right across the field, she comes up as an excellent risk.

She will need to be very good to chase down a number of these first up, particularly if the leading division receives any favours throughout the race.

The low draw in gate three could also become a significant negative late in the day.

If the preferred ground has shifted towards the centre and wider lanes, she may find herself buried closer to the inferior going and needing luck to extricate at the right time.

I doubt Chris Waller will have her fully wound up this early in the Spring.

With a plethora of potential Grand Final targets available over the coming months, there should be plenty left in the tank to carry her deep into the Flemington carnival.

I expect she will produce the classic flashing light run and charge at the leaders late, however she may simply run out of runway on this occasion.

At odds on in a field of this quality, she looks one to oppose.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.