Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 23/5/26

This week we focus on two favourites that face significant challenges and appear severely overbet at their current prices.

At Sandown, the Ciaron Maher stable has set a mare a very difficult task stepping to 1800 metres second up, and she may drift in betting as start time approaches.

At Doomben, the James McDonald and Chris Waller combination has forced the price of an emerging two year old filly into artificially short territory in a race where another key runner could easily displace her as favourite.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 23/5/26

Sandown Race 4 #7 Shockletz $2.70

A quality mare who may still be one run away from peak fitness and appears overbet on the back of previous strong performances.

This shapes as a genuinely run race and if the tempo is strong, her fitness may give out late against runners with more race conditioning.

From barrier two she also risks becoming buried away along the inside, which could prove problematic if the interior ground is inferior later in the day.

Second up over 1800 metres is rarely an ideal setup and she will need to produce a very high level performance to win under these circumstances.

At the current quote she represents poor value.

Avoid.

 

Doomben Race 3 #5 Katoto $2.70

The market reaction here appears excessive, driven largely by the James McDonald booking, the Chris Waller factor, and the exposed Tron Bot form line.

I am very happy to oppose her at the current short quote given she remains lightly raced and immature.

This is only her third career start and horses at this stage of development can often produce volatile performances, particularly when travelling away for the first time.

The likely track pattern is also a concern.

If the inside lanes deteriorate as expected, barrier two may become a disadvantage rather than an advantage.

She may be forced to shift away from the rail and navigate into better ground, which creates additional complications for an inexperienced filly.

The market may also shift late towards I Am Dirty, who many consider the leading two year old in the race.

At the current odds she looks an excellent risk.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.