Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 25/7/26

This week we have identified two runners that appear significantly over bet, with recent wins creating plenty of hype and recency bias in the market.

At Caulfield, a popular Lindsay Smith runner looks vulnerable stepping into a much deeper race where her get back racing pattern could prove costly.

Later at Randwick, a talented galloper still has plenty to learn on the race manners front and again looks at risk of doing too much work throughout the early stages.

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Beeso's Lays are on fire!

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Saturday Lays of the Day 25/7/26

Caulfield Race 5 #9 First Chorus $2.40

I love taking on this profile of horse, a last start winner stepping sharply up in grade where the market remains heavily influenced by recency bias.

Her typical get back racing pattern is a significant concern, with several key rivals expected to settle in the ideal positions just behind the speed.

Lindsay Smith has a loyal following and his runners are often over bet by recreational punters, with bookmakers happy to keep them artificially short due to the expected weight of investment.

This shapes as a much tougher assignment than last start and she is likely to be spotting some quality opposition a significant head start.

I can see her charging home late, however a few of these should already have kicked clear and she may simply run out of time.

Randwick Race 9 #5 Ice Kool $2.00

We were happy to oppose this runner last week before he was scratched, and I am keen to take him on again.

There is no doubting his talent, however the current quote looks far too short given he still has obvious racing manners that remain a concern.

He has shown a tendency to over race and pull hard through the early stages, and while Randwick can be forgiving, wasting energy in a Benchmark 100 race is unlikely to end well.

There is every chance he races keenly again, and if he is trapped wide or forced to work early, the task becomes significantly harder.

He also rises in grade and must carry 58.5 kilograms against stronger opposition, another factor the market appears to have overlooked.

At the current odds he represents poor value and looks an excellent risk.

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.