Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 30/5/26

This week the mug punters will be licking their lips, with two boom favourites who both come off flashy last start wins and appear severely overbet at the current quotes.

At Rosehill, a hyped two year old from the Chris Waller stable shapes as an excellent risk after an eye catching debut win in much weaker midweek company.

At Caulfield, another impressive last start winner rises sharply in grade and faces a very awkward speed map from a low barrier.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 30/5/26

Rosehill Race 1 #1 Tron Bolt $2.90

The market appears far too carried away with the midweek form line after an impressive debut victory on the Kensington circuit.

There is no doubt he looked smart winning first up, however this is a much harder race and the likely Heavy conditions present a completely new challenge.

A number of quality later maturing two year olds from leading stables are engaged here, many of whom have likely been aimed specifically at these richer late season races.

The Chris Waller factor also tends to compress prices, particularly second up, and that appears to be happening again here.

I expect support to arrive for several rivals late in betting, and at the current quote he looks poor value.

Avoid.

 

Caulfield Race 6 #11 Simurgh $1.90

The boom import absolutely toyed with Benchmark 78 company last start, however this assignment looks significantly tougher against a much deeper field.

The dominant win last start will naturally attract recreational money and plenty of multis, keeping the price artificially short.

The bigger concern is the race shape. From barrier three and lacking natural tactical speed, he risks being buried away behind runners and needing luck at crucial stages.

Traffic issues appear a genuine possibility and unless Craig Williams produces a perfectly timed ride, he could easily find himself with too much to do.

A few runners drawn to settle closer to the speed may get all the favours while he searches for clear running.

I would much rather be with runners such as Howlin’ Rain and Makdane at the bigger prices.

This looks the ideal opportunity for the bubble to burst on the hype horse.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.