Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 3/10/26

This week we focus on two over bet favourites at Randwick that both come up as excellent risks, with plenty of value to be found elsewhere in their respective fields.

In Race 4, a Will and Richard Freedman trained runner who the stable clearly has a very high opinion of may simply be a shade below their lofty expectations.

Whilst in Race 5, a Bjorn Baker hype horse is almost certain to be kept artificially short by bookmakers throughout betting and should prove extremely popular with the mug punters.

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Beeso's Lays are on fire!

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Lays of the Day 3/10/26

Randwick Race 4 #1 Genisis Runner $2.60

Going to pot the Will and Richard Freedman runner here who has had his chances in recent starts and may simply be a notch below the high expectations surrounding him following his dynamic Newcastle victory.

He likely needed the run last start at Rosehill and did work home well, however the performance was far from good enough to warrant the short quote being offered here.

His get back racing pattern also creates an obvious risk with Chad Schofield aboard.

Schofield is an extremely strong rider, however he can be patient aboard horses that settle back and there is always the possibility they concede too much ground before the race really gets serious.

On a big Group 1 day at Randwick, this looks a great opportunity to take on a favourite where plenty of value can be found elsewhere in the field.

Vallice is the interesting runner that catches my eye at the bigger price.

Randwick Race 5 #16 Unleashing $2.00

Very keen to take this runner on due to the hype surrounding both Bjorn Baker and Rachel King, which the market will almost certainly latch onto and over bet.

The mugs will not be able to get enough of this one and the expected weight of recreational investment should ensure bookmakers keep her artificially short throughout betting.

She was good here last start over 1400 metres when bumped and held up at crucial stages, however those excuses are exactly what the market has gone into overdrive about.

Luckless last start runners are regularly over bet at their next appearance as punters automatically assume they would have won with clear running.

That creates a classic recency bias scenario here where everyone has seen the same flashing light run.

This is also a deep field with some genuine Group class runners engaged, meaning she will certainly have her work cut out despite getting in beautifully with only 52 kilograms.

At $2.00, the excuses and hype are already well and truly built into the price.

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.