Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 31/1/26

I’m firmly against both hyped two year olds this week, who come up at poison prices in the feature juvenile races at both key venues.

At Rosehill, a hot two year old contest means the opposition is here to win, with many runners specifically set for this race to secure the required prizemoney for Golden Slipper entry.

Motivation levels among the challengers are extremely high.

Meanwhile at Caulfield, the favourite’s poor manners last start represent a significant risk when transferred to a tight turning circuit where positioning and race craft are crucial.

Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 31/1/26

Rosehill Race 3 #1 Incognito $1.60

These hyped two-year-olds are simply coming up far too short, especially when the entire market assessment is based on debut performances, where plenty can change in a short space of time at this age.

This is a classic case of a horse being spruiked off limited exposed form, with the market becoming carried away by a Breeders Plate win back in October.

This is a deep and competitive field, and several rivals will be highly motivated, having been trained specifically to win here and secure Golden Slipper prizemoney.

Their campaigns depend on it.

Incognito will have his work cut out against opposition that is race fit, targeted, and fully wound up for this assignment, unlike a favourite who may still be building towards later goals.

I expect a clear market drift towards $2 as professional teams take a firm position against him late.

Lay.

 

 

Caulfield Race 6 #1 Big Sky $1.90

Shapes as an excellent lay, the flashy last-start winner who now carries significant hype.

When the media latch onto a young horse and amplify the narrative, the price is almost always artificially compressed, and that appears to be the case here.

He was impressive winning down the Flemington straight on debut; however, this presents a completely different challenge around the tight-turning Caulfield circuit, where in-run position and tractability are vital.

Last start, he over-raced and showed poor manners, and those habits are far more punishing at Caulfield.

From a low draw, there is a real risk he gets cluttered up early and finds himself buried back along the rail, forced to circle the field.

Alternatively, if they try to use barrier two aggressively, there is a strong chance he fires himself up again, over races, and fails to finish the race off.

With his manners still questionable, he looks a high-risk proposition at the current poison price.

Avoid.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.