Melbourne Cup 2026 Tips: A Brutally Honest Assessment

Mick Gannon’s Brutally Honest 2026 Melbourne Cup Preview

Flemington Track Conditions – Melbourne Cup Day

Track Information	Details
Race	Melbourne Cup
Distance	3200m
Expected Track Rating	Soft 5
Rail Position	+3m
Field Size	24 runners

 

Melbourne Cup 2026 – Runner-by-Runner Preview

 1. Sons And Lovers – $23

Dylan Brown McMonagle | Barrier 3 | 57.5kg

Top weight, Group 2 winner at Longchamp over 2800m and a gallant second in the Kilternan lumping 63.5kg.

Gate three means he'll land handy and won't waste petrol covering extra ground.

But 57.5kg over two miles is a big ask, particularly in a field this competitive.

The market has him right on my number. I respect the horse, but there's no edge in the price.

My Verdict: Respect him, but no value.

 

 2. Trustyourinstinct – $9

James McDonald | Barrier 18 | 57kg

Won the Curragh Cup with a genuine turn of foot, then ran fourth in a proper Irish St Leger at weight-for-age.

That's serious staying form, not some bloke winning a picnic race and suddenly finding himself on a plane to Melbourne.

James McDonald is the best big-race rider in the country, and while barrier 18 looks scary on paper, don't be surprised if J-Mac somehow lands midfield with cover.

He's got the class, the stamina and the right bloke steering.

My Verdict: Genuine winning chance. Don't panic about the draw.

 

 3. Knight's Choice – $41

Robbie Dolan | Barrier 2 | 56.5kg

The $101 hero of 2024 returns carrying 5kg more than the day he made history.

Placed in the Herbert Power before disappearing into thin air in the Caulfield Cup, beaten ten lengths.

The fairytale was terrific. The celebrations were even better.

But this isn't a reunion tour where everyone gets another trophy for showing up.

I've got him marked at $78.

My Verdict: The fairytale had its chapter. Pass.

 

 4. Middle Earth – $13

Mark Zahra | Barrier 1 | 56.5kg

Third in this race last year, and the Maher stable clearly has him timed for another crack.

Ninth in the Caulfield Cup and eighth in the Cox Plate aren't exactly performances that have me rushing to the TAB.

Connections were celebrating when barrier one came out. The market celebrated even harder, smashing him into $15.

I'm not convinced.

From that inside draw, he could be buried behind half the field when the race gets serious.

At the 600m, Mark Zahra might need a helicopter to find a way out.

My Verdict: Taking him on. Could need a chopper rescue.

 

 5. Vauban – $61

Jordan Childs | Barrier 22 | 56.5kg

Started favourite in this race twice.

Now he's a nine-year-old having his fourth crack at the Melbourne Cup.

Last year I said he was a silly price but could win. He ran sixth.

This year he's only second-up after a plain ninth in the Geelong Cup and has drawn barrier 22.

At some point, you've got to stop paying for the reputation and start looking at what's actually in front of you.

He's a genuine 100/1 chance in my book.

That's not a typo.

My Verdict: Next.

 

 6. Enfjaar – $21

Ray Dawson | Barrier 8 | 56kg

The best of the Caulfield Cup runners backing up here, beaten just a length into third on his Australian debut.

That's good form, and barrier eight gives him every opportunity to enjoy a lovely run.

The Caulfield Cup winner isn't here to beat him again, either.

But here's the problem.

He's never raced over 3200m, doesn't possess a devastating turn of foot and has Equicast going on for the first time.

A few questions to answer before I'm opening the wallet.

My Verdict: Respect the form, but plenty of question marks.

 

 7. Royal Supremacy – $51

Ben Allen | Barrier 21 | 56kg

Won the JRA Cup before folding like a cheap deckchair in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 17 lengths behind the winner.

Last year I said he needed a ten-out-of-ten ride.

This year he's drawn barrier 21 and carries 5kg more.

So now he needs a ten-out-of-ten ride, divine intervention and probably a couple of the favourites to miss the start.

The weakest of Maher's seven runners for mine.

My Verdict: Needs a minor miracle. Not for us.

 

 8. Wine Dark Sea – $51

Damien Lane | Barrier 23 | 56kg

Started around $8 in the Caulfield Cup and looked to be travelling beautifully before the petrol light came on.

Finished 11th.

He's a Geoffrey Freer winner with genuine staying upside, so there is ability there.

But he's drawn barrier 23 and needs to find several lengths of improvement.

That's a fair bit to ask in a Melbourne Cup.

My Verdict: Taking him on.

 

 9. Asterix – $61

Jye McNeil | Barrier 6 | 55kg

Beaten 43 lengths in the Turnbull Stakes.

Forty-three.

That's not a beaten margin. That's a different postcode.

He was better in the Caulfield Cup, working hard during the middle stages before encountering interference near the fall.

But he's an eight-year-old who simply doesn't possess the class of the leading contenders.

You can make excuses for one run. You can't manufacture Group 1 ability.

My Verdict: Top-ten market at best. Not winning.

 

 10. Goodie Two Shoes – $26

Wayne Lordan | Barrier 19 | 55kg

Now we're talking.

Ran second in last year's Melbourne Cup and looks much better suited this time.

She's won the Lillie Langtry over 2800m this year before finishing last in the Kilternan carrying a whopping 62kg.

And that's exactly why she's double the price she should be.

Yes, she's carrying 3.5kg more than last year.

Yes, she's drawn wide again.

But we're likely to be racing on more suitable ground than last year.

I've got her marked at $13.

The market says $26.

You don't need to be a mathematician to work out which side of that equation I want to be on.

My Verdict: Best value in the race. $26 is a gift compared with my price.

 

 11. Juja Kibo – $11

Sam Clipperton | Barrier 14 | 55kg

The form horse of the locals.

Won the Metropolitan, then backed it up in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Both victories were full of authority.

But let's not get carried away.

His only previous attempt at 3200m was an unplaced Sydney Cup, and he's been penalised for those recent wins.

I also suspect a genuinely fast-run two miles is the last thing he wants.

Lovely form coming in, but this is a different examination.

My Verdict: Happy to risk him.

 

 12. Hopewell Rock – $11

Zac Lloyd | Barrier 15 | 54.5kg

My joint top-rated runner and the horse I reckon has beaten the handicapper.

He was beaten a head in the Ebor carrying 60.5kg.

Before that, he won at Goodwood over 2800m, beating the unlucky Small Fry, who has since finished second to Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup.

That's a form line I can get behind.

Ten starts, eight wins or placings, and he's still improving.

Now he drops 6kg from the Ebor.

The query is obvious. He's coming straight into the Melbourne Cup after 73 days without a local run, and he's never tackled 3200m.

But I'm prepared to forgive that.

The money has already arrived, backing him in from $21, and even after the plunge, I still think he's overs.

My Verdict: Joint top pick. The handicapper has given him a chance, and I'm taking it.

 

 13. Onesmoothoperator – $71

Declan Bates | Barrier 13 | 54.5kg

Third Melbourne Cup in a row for the nine-year-old.

His previous results?

Twelfth and sixteenth.

He's unplaced in all four starts this year and finished nine lengths behind them in the Geelong Cup.

At this stage, he's got more Melbourne Cup appearances than reasons to back him.

My Verdict: Hard pass.

 

 14. Soul Of Spain – $34

Tommy Berry | Barrier 5 | 54.5kg

One of the few runners with genuine 3200m form, having finished second in the Sydney Cup during the autumn.

That's a tick.

The form since has been patchy, although he was beaten only 4.5 lengths in the Caulfield Cup after making a mid-race move.

Barrier five is ideal, and he'll be grinding away when others have had enough.

But grinding into the top ten and winning a Melbourne Cup are two very different things.

My Verdict: Top-ten hope. Not the winner.

 

 15. Zahrann – $26

Ben Melham | Barrier 11 | 54.5kg

Won the Naturalism and suddenly everyone wanted a piece of him.

Then he got absolutely lapped in a wet Turnbull.

He was better in the Caulfield Cup, battling away to finish four lengths behind the winner.

Blinkers go on for the first time, and you ignore the Maher stable at your own peril.

Barrier 11 has also produced more Melbourne Cup winners than any other gate.

There's enough there to keep him in the conversation, but the 3200m remains a genuine question mark.

The market has him about right.

My Verdict: One for the exotics. Not convinced he's the winner.

 

 16. So You Are – $13

Rachel King | Barrier 7 | 54kg

Four months ago, he was running fourth in the Grafton Cup.

Now he's won four straight, including the Bendigo Cup and ATC St Leger.

That's some turnaround.

Rachel King should have him handy from a lovely draw, and he's as fit as a Mallee bull.

But those victories have come outside Group 1 company, and he's never raced over 3200m.

It's a cracking story, and everyone loves a horse on a winning streak.

Unfortunately, the bookies have noticed too.

My Verdict: Great story. Under the odds.

 

 17. Future History – $51

Jamie Melham | Barrier 12 | 53.5kg

Nine years old.

Forty-seven starts.

Finished fifteenth in the 2023 Melbourne Cup, beaten fourteen lengths while carrying just 50kg.

Last year's winning jockey jumping aboard is a lovely narrative for the television coverage.

But jockeys can't perform miracles.

Honest old horse, but he's not suddenly going to turn into Phar Lap.

My Verdict: Won't be winning.

 

 18. James J Braddock – $18

Craig Williams | Barrier 24 | 53.5kg

Here's the X-factor.

Third in the Epsom Derby before being gelded and freshened, then returned with a sixth in the Kilternan.

Northern Hemisphere three-year-olds carrying light weights have a habit of turning up in Melbourne and making everyone look silly.

So you can't completely dismiss him.

But he's drawn the absolute carpark in barrier 24 and doesn't possess a genuine turn of foot.

Craig Williams will need to produce something special in the early stages.

The market has him about right.

My Verdict: Interesting X-factor, but needs a Willo masterclass.

 

 19. Kizlyar – $34

Beau Mertens | Barrier 20 | 53.5kg

The forgotten Joseph O'Brien runner.

Only got into the field after Saint George was scratched.

He's won the Ascot Stakes over 4000m and has even had a crack over hurdles.

So for this bloke, 3200m is practically a sprint.

He led at a crawl in the Moonee Valley Cup and got outsprinted.

Forget that run.

If Beau Mertens rolls forward and makes this a proper staying contest, Kizlyar could keep rolling long after the more fashionable runners have called it a day.

The market has him at $41.

That's enormous.

My Verdict: Massive overs at $41. Don't leave him out of the exotics.

 

 20. Point Of Law – $6.50 fav

Ethan Brown | Barrier 9 | 53kg

The deserving favourite and my joint top-rated runner.

Sat outside a hot tempo in the Geelong Cup after drawing wide, kicked clear and was simply too tough for them late.

That's exactly the sort of performance I want to see heading into a Melbourne Cup.

Barrier nine is perfect.

53kg is kind.

And the Maher stable is absolutely flying.

The only concern is what's happening between his ears.

He's only having his sixth start and once got loose at Werribee and decided to do a few laps of his own.

Not exactly the behaviour you want from a Melbourne Cup favourite.

But if Ethan Brown can get him settled in the first 800m, they'll need something special to beat him.

The price is fair, and he's a genuine winning chance.

My Verdict: Joint top pick. Settle early and he's right in the finish.

 

 21. Strictly Business – $71

Dean Yendall | Barrier 4 | 53kg

Won the VRC Oaks last spring.

Hasn't beaten a horse home since.

Last in the Moonee Valley Cup, beaten fourteen lengths.

Second-last in the Herbert Power.

There's being out of form, and then there's this.

If you draw her in the office sweep, buy another ticket.

My Verdict: Absolutely not.

 

 22. Mr Monaco – $23

Jabez Johnston (a) | Barrier 16 | 52.5kg

Won the Bart Cummings and followed it up with a gutsy third in the Moonee Valley Cup despite racing wide and over-racing.

That's good form.

But his only previous attempt at 3200m was a disappointing Sydney Cup when well fancied.

Now he's got an apprentice aboard in the biggest race of the year and could find himself trapped three wide.

There's enough ability to be competitive, but I can't get past the distance concern.

He's fairly priced.

My Verdict: Respect the form, but the 3200m worries me.

 

 23. Zakouma – $26

William Pike | Barrier 10 | 52kg

Grahame Begg's first Melbourne Cup runner, and the stable has reportedly been targeting this race since May.

He was solid enough in the Herbert Power before finishing last in the Crystal Mile, which was used as a fitness hit-out.

The light weight is a positive.

William Pike is another.

But I can't make him anywhere near a $26 chance.

Just because a horse has been aimed at the Melbourne Cup doesn't mean he's good enough to win it.

My Verdict: Overbet. Happy to leave him alone.

 

 24. Shockletz – $10

Harry Coffey | Barrier 17 | 51kg

Everyone's mate's tip this week.

You can't walk into a pub without someone telling you Shockletz is the one.

She's a daughter of 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking, won the Archer Stakes and gets into the race carrying just 51kg.

She's three from three at 2500m and ran a cracking second in the Tesio.

So yes, she's going well.

But she's never raced beyond 2500m, barrier 17 requires a sharp ride, and Harry Coffey's fitness is worth monitoring after his Derby Day fall.

She's absolutely capable of finishing in the top six.

But at $9.50?

No thanks.

I've got her marked at $20.

My Verdict: Top-six chance, but ridiculously short for mine. Let someone else take the price.

My Melbourne Cup 2026 Tips & Best Bets

I've gone through all 24 runners, and for me, this race comes down to finding the right balance between genuine winning chances and horses the market has underestimated.

I've got Hopewell Rock and Point Of Law sharing top billing in my ratings, but there are a couple of runners at bigger odds who I think are worth serious consideration.

Rank	Runner	My Assessment
1st	#12 Hopewell Rock	Joint top-rated, progressive international with a favourable weight
2nd	#20 Point Of Law	Joint top-rated, deserving favourite and genuine winning chance
3rd	#10 Goodie Two Shoes	Best value at $26, rated a $13 chance
4th	#2 Trustyourinstinct	Proven Group 2 stayer with James McDonald aboard

 

My Best Bet – #12 Hopewell Rock

Hopewell Rock is the horse I want to be with.

His Ebor performance was outstanding, his Goodwood form stacks up beautifully through Small Fry and Point Of Law, and he's getting a significant weight advantage.

Yes, the 73-day break and first attempt at 3200m are questions.

But every runner in this race has something to overcome.

I reckon he's beaten the handicapper, and even after being backed in from $21, I still think there's value.

 

Main Danger – #20 Point Of Law

Point Of Law is the deserving favourite and the horse I fear most.

His Geelong Cup win was full of merit, and he's drawn perfectly with just 53kg.

The Maher stable is flying, and if Ethan Brown can get him to switch off early, he's going to be very hard to beat.

My only concern is his temperament. The talent is there, but he'll need to behave himself.

 

Best Value – #10 Goodie Two Shoes ($26)

This is where I reckon the market has made its biggest mistake.

Goodie Two Shoes finished second in last year's Melbourne Cup and has proven she can handle the trip.

Her latest run looks ordinary on paper, but she was carrying 62kg, and I think the market has punished her far too heavily for it.

I've got her marked at $13.

You can get $26.

That's the sort of discrepancy I'm looking for when having a bet.

 

Roughie Worth Considering – #19 Kizlyar ($41)

Kizlyar is the one at big odds I wouldn't want to leave out.

He's won over 4000m, so we know he stays all day.

His Moonee Valley Cup run can be forgiven, and if Beau Mertens makes this a genuine staying test, he could be giving plenty of these a headache late.

At $41, he's enormous overs in my book.

 

My Final Melbourne Cup Verdict

I'm happy to take on a few of the popular runners this year.

Middle Earth could find himself buried on the fence, Juja Kibo has questions at the trip, So You Are is under the odds, and Shockletz has become everyone's favourite tip despite never racing beyond 2500m.

They might make me look silly, but I'm not backing horses just because everyone else is.

 

My Melbourne Cup Top Four:

1. #12 Hopewell Rock

2. #20 Point Of Law

3. #10 Goodie Two Shoes

4. #2 Trustyourinstinct

Hopewell Rock is my top selection, Point Of Law is the main danger, and Goodie Two Shoes is the value runner I want to be on at $26.

And if Kizlyar rolls forward and turns it into a proper staying contest, don't say I didn't warn you.

Good luck, punters.