This week we take on two warm favourites on the transferred Moonee Valley program, being run at Flemington this year. Both face significant challenges, including a steep rise in class against quality opposition.

Early in the day, a talented Sydney sprinter has his first look down the Flemington straight, where his questionable racing manners could prove his undoing against seasoned Group performers.

Whilst midway through the card, a Waterhouse and Bott runner looks severely unsuited by the long Flemington straight, where she could be a sitting duck late against a field stacked with Group 1 hard heads.

 

 

Cox Plate Day: Saturday Lays 24/10/26

Flemington Race 1 #4 Ice Kool $2.20

I expect his questionable racing manners could be his undoing here, particularly at this level where any mistakes can prove costly against seasoned Group performers.

There is no doubting he is stacked with talent, however his tendency to over race and pull his head off through the early stages remains a significant concern.

Against opposition of this quality, wasting valuable petrol early could prove fatal to his chances, particularly if he is forced to work harder than expected throughout the run.

There are several Group experienced runners engaged, including Spywire and Way To The Stars, in a field that has far more depth than the market appears to appreciate.

His first look down the Flemington straight also represents a major unknown. This is a unique racing environment and plenty of talented horses have struggled to adapt at their first attempt, particularly those with questionable racing manners.

At the current poison price of $2.20, punters are being asked to take criminal odds about a horse who still has plenty to prove from both a tactical and temperament perspective.

I expect the professional betting teams to be firmly against him inside the final minutes of betting, with a significant market drift potentially on the cards.

It would not surprise to see something closer to $3 widely available by start time.

Avoid.

 

Flemington Race 6 #12 Surfin Bird $2.50

For a Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott trained runner who loves to race on speed and attempt to hold on at the death, she looks severely unsuited by the long Flemington straight.

I can see her travelling strongly for much of the race before becoming a sitting duck when the genuine Group 1 hard heads begin launching inside the final 200 metres.

She was also defeated at her only previous appearance at Flemington, making this an interesting placement by the stable given her preferred racing pattern.

The speed map presents another significant concern.

Astral Flame is also a noted on pace runner and, drawn underneath her in barrier three, should be capable of punching up along the inside and making life far more difficult for Surfin Bird through the early stages.

If they decide to press forward and take her on for the lead, there is every chance she is forced to burn valuable petrol before the race really gets serious.

This is also a field stacked with genuine Group 1 experience, including proven hard heads Feroce, Evaporate and Buckaroo, who should ensure this is a far tougher assignment than the market suggests.

Against opposition of this quality, she simply cannot afford to do too much work early and still expect to hold them off over the testing Flemington straight.

I expect she could look the winner at some stage before the wheels begin to wobble late, with the final 100 metres likely to prove her undoing.

At the current quote, she represents poor value and comes up as an excellent risk.

Lay.

 

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