Saturday Lays: Derby Day 31/10/26

This week we focus on two warm favourites in key Group 1 races at both major venues, where both appear severely over bet and come up as excellent risks at their current short quotes.

At Randwick, the gun Moody and Coleman trained mare comes off an absolute gut buster over 2000 metres at Caulfield and now faces the challenge of dropping back in distance against some much sharper types in the feature Golden Eagle.

Whilst at Flemington, Chris Waller appears to have had an afterthought with his quality last start winning mare, throwing her into another Group 1 battle against several rivals who have been specifically set to peak on the day.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 31/10/26

Randwick Race 8 #16 Sheza Alibi $1.75

Going to pot the gun mare here at the poison odds on quote, with the belief she may already be on the way down this preparation following her underwhelming performance at Caulfield over 2000 metres last start.

I feel there is every chance she is cooked following that brutal Caulfield assignment, where the race was run at a fast clip and she was forced to chase hard from a long way out.

That was an absolute gut buster and the sort of performance that can take plenty out of the tank, particularly this deep into a preparation.

She now drops back to 1600 metres against a field stacked with sharper sprinting types who should have considerably more freshness in their legs.

That change in race shape presents a significant challenge, as she may simply lack the explosive turn of foot required to match a few of these when the pressure goes on.

I expect she will be running on late as per her usual pattern, however the danger is that several of her rivals have already kicked clear and she is left chasing without making any serious impression.

I would much prefer to be with the likes of Skyhook and Beiwacht, who possess the sharper turns of foot and look better suited to the likely scenario.

At the current poison price, the market appears to be completely overlooking the potential effects of that last start gut buster.

I expect the professional betting teams to be firmly against her late, with the possibility she drifts towards black figures as betting firms up.

Avoid.

 

Flemington Race 8 #1 Lady Shenandoah $2.30

Had her birthday winning the Group 1 Toorak last start, where the seas parted at exactly the right moment and J Mac was able to punch her through a needle eye opening to get up on the line very late.

There is no doubting her talent, however the market appears to have gone completely overboard following that victory, with recency bias now firmly influencing her current quote.

She enjoyed a charmed passage when it mattered most and there is absolutely no guarantee she receives those same favours against another quality Group 1 field.

This race has serious depth and has been a long term target for several of the country's best mares, many of whom should be arriving here fully screwed down and ready to produce their peak performance.

The placement from the Waller camp also looks somewhat questionable.

Following what appeared to be her Grand Final run in the Toorak, this has the smell of a classic afterthought, with the stable electing to send her around again rather than having specifically targeted this assignment from a long way out.

There is every chance she has already produced her peak run for the preparation and could now be on the way down, whilst several of her rivals are only just reaching their best.

At $2.30, punters are being asked to take a very short price about a mare who needed everything to fall into place last start and now faces an even deeper field of quality opposition.

The market has fallen in love with the Toorak win, however I am more than happy to take the opposite view.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.